Andy Barr

Democratic Senate nominee Charles Booker is running behind Republican Andy Barr in Kentucky's open Senate race, according to the latest available polling, even as the seat's incumbent, retiring Senator Mitch McConnell, remains absent from Washington amid unresolved questions about his health.

A poll released by Booker's own campaign found the Democrat trailing Barr 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, a nine-point gap that campaign strategists cast as evidence of a "winnable" race even as independent analysts continue to rate Kentucky as one of the least competitive Senate contests in the country.

The survey found that more than a third of likely voters said they could still change their minds, and a majority disapproved of President Donald Trump's tariffs.

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"By working both hard and smart and with investments, this is a winnable race, plain and simple," Booker strategist Kamau Marshall told FOX 56 News after the release of the poll.

Despite Booker's campaign optimism, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Republicans roughly a 93 percent to 95 percent chance of retaining the longtime ruby red seat. The state last elected a Democratic senator in 1992.

The Global Strategy Group survey was conducted from August 24 to August 27 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to the Barr and Booker campaigns, and to McConnell's office, for comment.

McConnell's Absence and the Scrutiny It Has Drawn

McConnell, 84, has not appeared in the Senate since June 11, when his office said he was hospitalized after a fall that briefly knocked him unconscious. He later disclosed he also developed a mild case of pneumonia, and said doctors ruled out a stroke, heart attack, concussion or broken bones. He was discharged to a rehabilitation center and, in early August, said he had returned home to continue recovering.

The nearly three-month absence, which has narrowed the GOP's Senate majority to 52-47, has drawn sustained pressure from Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear—a popular governor some have discussed as a 2028 White House contender. Beshear has sent McConnell a series of increasingly pointed letters demanding proof that he retains the "capacity to serve." He also warned that he would ask Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune to investigate further if McConnell did not address Kentuckians directly.

Beshear has also argued that Kentucky's 2024 law barring him from appointing a temporary replacement—and instead requiring a special election—could face a legal challenge, since the state constitution says vacancies "shall be filled by appointment of the Governor."

The uncertainty surrounding McConnell's absence has also fueled online speculation, including unfounded claims from MAGA influencer Laura Loomer that the senator's condition was being concealed or that photos released of him were altered.

University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss has cautioned that a special election in the state would carry real risk for Republicans.

"Special elections are highly unpredictable, with low turnout that can produce outcomes at odds with the overall orientation of the state's electorate," Voss told CNBC.

House Oversight Chair James Comer, a Kentucky Republican, said this month that McConnell's staff hopes he returns when the Senate reconvenes next week.

Barr has largely sided with McConnell's office over Beshear. He has described the senator as "a fighter and a survivor" who will serve out his term, and has called Beshear's demands for health videos "pettiness and indecency" beneath the governor's office.

But not every Kentucky Republican agrees, with Representative Thomas Massie stating he shares Beshear's call for "more transparency."

Mitch McConnell's Health Setbacks: A Recent Timeline

McConnell's current absence follows several health problems this year. In early February, he was briefly hospitalized with what his office called flu-like symptoms. He returned to his normal schedule afterward.

The bigger setback came June 14, when McConnell fell at his Washington home and briefly lost consciousness. His office later said he developed a mild case of pneumonia while in the hospital. Doctors also said tests found no fractures, heart problems, stroke, tumor or brain bleed.

McConnell moved from the hospital to a rehabilitation facility in early July. On August 6, he said he had been discharged and would continue "an intensive regimen of physical therapy from home."

That update did little to ease pressure from Beshear. On CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Beshear said he had received "absolutely nothing" from McConnell's office after days of asking about the senator's condition.

That account contrasts with Comer's more optimistic prediction on September 3 that McConnell would return when the Senate reconvenes September 14.

Nearly three months after the fall, McConnell has not appeared in public or returned to the Senate since June 11. His office has also not released detailed medical information about his cognitive function or ability to handle his daily duties.

Beshear and outside observers, including health-policy researchers at Northeastern University, have called for more information. Without it, questions about McConnell's condition remain largely based on statements from his allies and critics.

Kentucky’s Republican Lean Limits Booker’s Path

McConnell's approval rating in Kentucky remains low. A February Emerson College Polling survey found that just 15 percent of Kentucky voters approved of his job performance, while 68 percent disapproved.

Beshear, by comparison, had a 52 percent approval rating, while Trump stood at 53 percent. The gap suggests that McConnell's low standing is specific to him rather than a broader rejection of Republican politics in the state.

At the same time, the national political environment has shifted toward Democrats. National generic congressional ballot polls have consistently shown Democrats ahead in 2026. An Emerson College Polling survey in July put Democrats ahead by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent.

That national shift has appeared to do little to change Kentucky's political fundamentals. Trump carried the state by more than 30 points in 2024, and election analysts The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as "Solid Republican" and "Safe Republican," respectively.

Booker's path, as in his 2022 Senate race against Rand Paul, would require strong support in Louisville and Lexington while making significant gains in the margins among voters in rural parts of the state.

Kentucky's general election is November 3. The Senate is scheduled to return from recess September 14, when McConnell's office has indicated he may return. Unless McConnell resigns, dies or is expelled, there would be no special election before then. Barr is the Republican nominee for the seat, while Booker is the Democratic nominee.