Andy Biggs

Arizona Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs holds a 5-point lead over Republican U.S. Congressman Andy Biggs in the state's gubernatorial race, a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights shows.

Newsweek reached out to a political analyst via email Wednesday for comment.

Why It Matters

As a pivotal battleground state, Arizona’s political trends may foreshadow national outcomes, with shifting demographics and voter priorities influencing both major parties’ strategies. Election outcomes in the Grand Canyon State could play a critical role in the broader national landscape amid the 2026 midterm cycle.

What To Know

According to the poll, incumbent Hobbs secured 42 percent of the vote compared with Biggs' 37 percent. The poll also shows that 16 percent of voters are still undecided. In a potential head-to-head with GOP candidate Congressman David Schweikert, Hobbs secured 44 percent of the vote compared with Schweikert's 35 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,023 registered voters in Arizona from February 23 to February 26 and has a margin of error of 3.06 percent.

The poll also shows that women back Hobbs 45 percent to 30 percent, as men favor Biggs 44 percent to 39 percent.

NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble said in the poll, “This is a competitive but structurally polarized race.

“Governor Hobbs benefits from a clear gender advantage and strength with younger voters, while Republicans are consolidating men and older voters. The decisive question will be who wins the middle — particularly women under 50 and independents who are still parked in the undecided column.

“With double-digit undecideds among registered voters, this race is far from locked in. The candidate who can consolidate their base while making inroads with persuadable women and middle-aged voters will have the edge.”

What People Are Saying

Hobbs, on X in October: "Arizona: I’m running for re-election. Your stories of hard work, hope, and determination inspire me to keep moving our state forward. I’m ready to serve you for 4 more years and always put your family first. Let’s get to work."

Biggs, on X in February: "I'm working with President @realDonaldTrump to make America more prosperous, safe, and affordable again. This agenda is setting up a great future for our children and grandchildren. They deserve leaders who are committed to leaving our nation better than we found it."

What Happens Next

The Arizona gubernatorial primary is scheduled for July 21, followed by the general election on November 3.