Angie Craig

Minnesota Democrat Tina Smith endorsed Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan over Representative Angie Craig to succeed her in the U.S. Senate on Monday in a race Republicans are hoping to make competitive in the midterm elections later this year.

Flanagan said in a press release that she “would be deeply honored to carry her work forward in the United States Senate.”

In a statement to Newsweek, a Craig spokesperson said the congresswoman would be “the best candidate to keep this seat blue.”

Newsweek also reached out to the campaigns of Republicans Michele Tafoya, David Hann and Royce White for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Republicans are hoping to make the Senate race competitive later this year, though Minnesota has generally leaned toward Democrats in recent years. Smith opted against running for another term and chose to endorse Flanagan, viewed as the more progressive candidate, over Craig, who has built a more moderate reputation in the House of Representatives, in the Democratic primary.

Minnesota has become the epicenter of the Trump administration’s ramped-up immigration enforcement. Two American citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot by immigration officers in January amid protests in the city, and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agents have faced growing scrutiny over their tactics in immigration operations.

What To Know

Smith, who previously indicated she would not endorse a candidate, unveiled her endorsement of Flanagan on X on Monday, stating that there is “no one” she trusts more to stand with Minnesotans than the state’s lieutenant governor.

“Peggy has served this state so well,” Smith said. “She has delivered results for Minnesotans and she understands that right now what we need are fierce fighters—people who are willing to stand up to the status quo. People who won’t be intimidated.”

Smith’s endorsement gives her support from a prominent Minnesota official in her primary race against Craig. She has also received support from Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, and former Senator Al Franken, a Minnesota Democrat.

Craig, meanwhile, has support from former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

Polls have given Flanagan a lead in the primary.

A Public Policy Polling survey from last month gave Flanagan a 12-point lead (40 percent to 28 percent), with nearly one-third of voters (31 percent) still being undecided about who they would support in the primary.

“Both candidates have net-positive favorability ratings, though Flanagan’s is much higher: 70% view her favorably while just 7% view her unfavorably for a +63 net favorability rating. Angie Craig is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 12% for a +47 net favorability rating,” the polling memo reads.

It surveyed 976 likely voters from January 16-17, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The latest poll from Impact Research showed a tight race but gave Flanagan a three-point lead over Craig (45 percent to 42 percent). It surveyed 600 likely voters from January 13-15, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Polling on the general election is more sparse. Several Republicans are running, including former Minnesota Senate Minority Leader David Hann, retired broadcaster Michele Tafoya and former NBA player Royce White, who unsuccessfully challenged Minnesota Democratic Amy Klobuchar in the 2024 Senate race.

An Impact Research poll, conducted from July 8-11, 2025, showed Craig with a 4-point lead over Tafoya (49 percent to 45 percent) and Flanagan with a 3-point lead over Tafoya (48 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 604 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

David Schultz, a professor of political science at Hamline University, told Newsweek there are a few reasons Flanagan may be leading. She may have more statewide name recognition as lieutenant governor, and the ICE surge in the state could also cause voters to embrace a more progressive politician.

The ICE surge may also be galvanizing Democratic support and alienating swing voters from the GOP, Schultz said.

“A race that I would have thought maybe if the Republicans had picked the right candidate would be competitive, I’m starting to shift it to being less competitive depending on who the Democratic candidate is also,” he said.

Craig, who has represented a competitive district, is viewed as the stronger Democrat for the general election, he said, noting that Flanagan positioning herself as more progressive may not benefit her in the more conservative, rural parts of the state.

Still, Democrats can win without those voters but cannot get “blown away,” Schultz added.

“That becomes the question. Can Flanagan get enough support among liberal and progressive voters while potentially losing support in rural Minnesota?” he said.

Minnesota last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 1972, but it has still only been light blue in recent elections. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by only 4 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Former President Joe Biden carried it by about 7 points in 2020, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won it by less than 2 points in 2016.

What People Are Saying

Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan said in a statement: “Tina is an unapologetic progressive champion for working people who has delivered real results for Minnesotans all across the state. I’ve learned so much from her over the years and I would be deeply honored to carry her work forward in the United States Senate.”

A spokesperson for Representative Angie Craig’s campaign told Newsweek: “At her core, Angie Craig is a fighter. She is the only candidate who has proven she can both win tough, competitive races against a Republican and go toe-to-toe with the Trump administration. From voting to impeach Donald Trump twice and now taking on Kristi Noem and ICE, to writing the law that capped the cost of insulin at $35 for seniors and banning members of Congress from trading stocks, Angie Craig has shown she’s the fighter Minnesotans need to hold the powerful accountable. As Republicans attack the Lt. Governor over fraud, it’s clear that the best candidate to keep this seat blue is Angie Craig.”

Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote in a January 29 update: “Democrats do have to navigate a fraud scandal that contributed to Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) recent decision not to seek a third term, and Flanagan (as a current state-level official) would be easier for Republicans to tie to that scandal. But the recent, horrific events in Minneapolis, with Renee Good and Alex Pretti being killed by federal immigration agents, are likely to nationalize the Minnesota races in favor of Democrats, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-MN) entrance into the gubernatorial race is also likely to be helpful to the eventual Democratic Senate nominee.”

What Happens Next

Forecasters give Democrats an advantage. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Democratic. The primary is set for August 11, 2026, according to the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office.

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