Ashley Hinson

Two Democratic candidates have inched ahead in a U.S. Senate race for Iowa’s seat, according to a new poll.

Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate, and are seeking to maintain that edge in the midterms.

The party in the White House historically loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats have overperformed in special and state elections the past year, helping fuel optimism among some in the party for the 2026 November elections.

What To Know

A new Echelon Insights poll of 377 people found both Democratic candidates, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, lead Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in the race. While Turek and Wahls both have the same share of votes in a hypothetical match up with Hinson, 46 percent, Turek has a slightly bigger lead against Hinson’s 44 percent.

Ten percent of voters in a Wahls-Hinson match up are undecided, and 9 percent in a Turek-Hinson race. The seat is open after Senator Joni Ernst announced in September that she would not be running for reelection.

The same poll found that a majority of Iowa voters backed the Democratic candidate, Rob Sand, for governor in the state, 51 percent to Republican Randy Feenstra’s 39 percent.

The poll was conducted between April 3 and 9 and has a margin of error is 6.6 percentage points.

The earlier GBAO poll this month gave Hinson a narrow lead over Turek and Wahls. On the initial ballot, Hinson led Turek by 4 and Wahls by 3 points. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent. It was sponsored by ModSquad, a group supporting moderate Democratic candidates, reported by Politico.

Who Is Running for the US Senate Seat in Iowa

Hinson is running for the Republican nomination in the race. She first was elected to represent the state in 2020, after serving in the state House and working as a journalist. President Donald Trump endorsed Hinson in September, writing in a September Truth Social post, “I know Ashley well and she is a WINNER! A Loving Wife and Proud Mother of two sons, Ashley is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Iowa, and will continue doing so in the United States Senate.”

Republican Jim Carlin is also running for Senate. He is an Army veteran, attorney, and former state legislator in the House and Senate.

Wahls, a sixth-generation Iowan, was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2019 and served as minority leader of the Iowa Senate for several years. Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state House member.

The Cook Political Report rates the Iowa contest as “likely Republican.”

President Donald Trump safely won all of his three White House races in Iowa. Democrats haven't secured a Senate seat since 2008 in the state following Representative Tom Harkin's election. Ernst was the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa.

What Happens Next

The Iowa primary election will take place on June 2.