Ashley Moody

Republican Senator Ashley Moody held a lead over Democratic challenger Alexander Vindman in the latest poll of the Florida Senate race.

Newsweek reached out to the Moody and Vindman campaigns for comment via press contact form and email.

Why It Matters

Florida, once a key battleground state, shifted rightward over the past decade, becoming a Republican stronghold that backed President Donald Trump by double digits in the 2024 presidential race. But Democrats are hopeful that a more favorable national environment and a potential GOP polling collapse with Latino voters could again make the Sunshine State competitive in the 2026 midterm elections. Victories in recent special elections in the state fueled Democrats' optimism about the midterms in Florida.

What to Know

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, appointed Moody to fill Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s seat after he was picked to serve in the Trump administration. Prior to her appointment, Moody served as the state’s attorney general. She is expected to easily win the party’s nomination.

Vindman, a key figure in the 2019 Trump impeachment, is running against several other Democrats in the primary, including state Representative Angie Nixon.

A new Public Policy Polling survey—a Vindman internal—showed Moody up 3 points over Vindman in the general election (43 percent to 40 percent), reported Florida Politics. The poll surveyed 574 registered voters on April 2-3, 2026.

That’s a narrower margin compared to recent elections in the state. In 2024, Trump carried Florida by 13 points. In 2022, DeSantis won reelection by 19 points, while Rubio won his race by more than 16 points.

Other polls have been more favorable to Moody.

An Emerson College poll showed Moody up 8 points over Vindman (46 percent to 38 percent) and by 11 points over Nixon (47 percent to 36 percent). It surveyed 1,125 likely voters from March 29-31, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

A University of North Florida poll showed Moody up 7 points over Vindman (45 percent to 38 percent) and eight points over Nixon (46 percent to 38 percent). It surveyed 772 and 768 likely voters from February 21 to March 2, 2026.

Florida has become more conservative over the past decade due to an influx of conservative retirees into the state, as well as Trump’s inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters. It backed former President Barack Obama in both his 2008 and 2012 runs, but then supported Trump in all three of his presidential bids.

What People Are Saying

Pollster Jim Williams wrote in a memo reported by Florida Politics: “Moody is pretty much a blank slate to voters in the state, with a 43% plurality having no opinion about her at all, and those who do have one are pretty evenly split (30% approve, 27% disapprove). Even among Republican voters, just 47% approve of her job performance, with 45% having no opinion.”

Dr. Sean Freeder, director of the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida, wrote in a press release in March: “At least at this stage in these races, vote choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity. Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years, perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the President usually struggles more in midterm elections.”

Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote in a January 29 update: “Democrats did just get a candidate there who at the very least is going to raise a boatload of money—Alexander Vindman, the former National Security Council aide at the center of Trump’s first impeachment and twin brother of first-term Rep. Eugene Vindman (D, VA-7). Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is an appointed incumbent and, historically, appointees have a little more to prove than elected incumbents, although that is another factor that probably matters less now than in the past. Regardless, Moody herself does have an electoral track record of her own, winning statewide attorney general races by relatively impressive margins in 2018 and 2022.”

What Happens Next

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Safe Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers it to be Likely Republican.