Barry Moore

There’s no independent polling in Alabama’s U.S. Senate GOP runoff but there is another indicator of how the race is shaping up.

Nearly $1.5 million has flown into prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket for wagering on the GOP race, which resulted in a runoff between Trump-endorsed Congressman Barry Moore and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson to be decided June 16.

That $1.5 million figure, which includes all predictions placed since Aug. 12 on Kalshi and Nov. 13 on Polymarket, is an astonishing amount for a campaign with little real-world stakes.

Whoever wins the runoff is all but assured to win the Senate seat in November in bright red Alabama against the winner of the Democratic runoff between Birmingham attorney Everett Wess and Birmingham business owner Dakarai Larriett.

Gambling is largely illegal in Alabama, but prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have tried to distinguish themselves by emphasizing that their users aren’t placing bets.

Instead, users are making a prediction on the probable outcome of an event, according to the Associated Press.

And because the platforms are regulated by the federal government via the the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, they are not subject to state-level restrictions or bans in place for traditional gambling and sports betting, including higher age limits.

The Senate seat became up for grabs after Sen. Tommy Tuberville decided to run for Alabama governor instead of seeking reelection.

On Kalshi, only $16,000 has been wagered on who will win between Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones in the race for governor.

Even without an incumbent running, there is scant independent polling in Alabama’s Senate race.

Unsurprisingly, a survey conducted by a group aligned with Moore shows the Wiregrass congressman with a 16-point advantage over Hudson, 53% to Hudson’s 36%.

Meanwhile, a poll commissioned by the Alabama Conservatives PAC, which is supporting Hudson, shows the former Jefferson County sheriff candidate just 1 percentage point behind Moore,

According to the prediction markets, Moore is a near-lock to win on June 19.

On Kalshi, where more than $1.1 million has been spent on predictions on the race, Moore is listed as a 91% chance of winning the runoff. That means that $100 placed on Moore would yield a $109 payout if he defeats Hudson.

Polymarket, which lists more than $340,000 in trading volume on the race, has similar odds: Moore is at 93% there, meaning a $100 wager would yield $107.