Ben Luján

Some people loathe the political ads on TV. They find them divisive, negative, unappealing and can't wait for an election to pass so that the barrage will end.

I, however, as a biological political pundit, find them interesting, insightful and telling. They not only indicate which candidates have money to burn, they are a window into what the candidates perceive as their strengths and weaknesses by the narratives they attempt to build.

U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, for example, is trying to rewrite history in his most recent TV ads.

I try and take note who is, and who isn't, airing ads during local and national news broadcasts. Just as the number of yard signs is a good indication of who's ahead in local races, the frequency of TV ads tells the score at the statewide level.

For example, former U.S. Interior secretary Deb Haaland, with a political war chest exceeding $17 million, has been advertising on every newscast I've seen for weeks. She doesn't say much other than she's been sober and she's going to stand up for New Mexicans, but that's better than nothing.

By contrast, I've rarely seen TV ads from her Republican opponent for governor, former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. That's an indication to me that that race has been decided since the June primaries.

A second round of Journal polling of the governor's race will be published Sunday. I'll predict today, on Thursday, without peeking into our workflow system, that the race is about where it was in August, with Haaland holding a 6-point lead. My election night prediction is comparable to our August poll, 53-47 Haaland.

I've mentally prepared myself for seven years of job famine and population pestilence under a Haaland administration, although I still doubt she'll be up to run for a second term. In any case, the sooner we get it started, the sooner we can get it over. Besides, not every state can be successful. Forty-ninth or 50th ain't so bad when you draw comparisons with Cuba and Haiti. Just store up plenty of grain and diesel and we'll get through it.

The most curious ads are those from Luján and state Attorney General Raúl Torrez.

Torrez is running against a Republican, Samuel Isaiah Kane Sr., who concedes he's more likely to get struck by lighting several times than win. Luján is also cruising toward victory against a political unknown, Republican Larry Marker, who has virtually no campaign cash.

Political action committees, which aren't affiliated with campaigns, aren't running ads in either the U.S. Senate or attorney general's race. That's because they don't waste money on uncompetitive races. Candidates like Torrez will do so just to remind voters they're on the ballot.

Why else are Torrez and Ben Ray pouring tens of thousands of dollars into TV ads? Torrez has gotten plenty of publicity lately with his office's lucrative lawsuits against Facebook and Meta, and Luján is as well known in New Mexico as green chile and heartburn.

Torrez must have something under his sleeve. I suspect he's eyeing an appointment to U.S. attorney general if a Democrat wins the presidential race in 2028. Ben Ray, who can ride his father's coattails no higher up the political ladder, is trying to rewrite history and present himself as a tough rancher.

Have you seen Luján's ads?

In his first ads of the election cycle, Ben Ray is depicted shoveling dirt out of an arroyo, with the dust wafting up in the sunlit air. Although it's very cinematic, does anyone believe Luján shovels arroyos? Does anyone believe Ben Ray should be shoveling arroyos, or doing any strenuous work, after his cerebellar stroke in January 2022?

In his TV ads six years ago, Luján was pitchforking bales of hay into the back of truck. I didn't believe it then and I don't believe it now.

In his recent Hollywood ads, there is what filmmakers call a continuity issue. Ben Ray is wearing work gloves when he shovels dirt out of the arroyo, but at the end of the commercial, when he's turned to shoveling manure, the gloves are gone. Who shovels manure without gloves?

Lujan's second ads, featuring his political sidekick Tina Cordova, are downright deceptive. In the ad, Cordova sits with Lujan at her much-photographed kitchen table praising Ben Ray for passing the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act. The only problem there is Luján voted against the legislation last year that expanded RECA eligibility to New Mexicans for the first time.

Like former Democratic presidential contender John Kerry, all Ben Ray can truthfully say is he voted for the bill before he voted against it.

I think Luján senses vulnerability over his vote against RECA, and that's why he's buying loads of TV ads in an altogether uncompetitive race. He's trying to rewrite history.

It's true that as a member of the U.S. House, Luján advocated for extending RECA to New Mexico, but with great futility, because he's seen on Capitol Hill as a hyperpartisan. In fact, extending RECA eligibility to New Mexico was Ben Ray's signature issue before moving over to the U.S. Senate in 2020.

But when the rubber hit the road, Luján voted against it, because the RECA expansion was part of President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill.

Luján, and every other New Mexico congressional Democrat, voted against Trump's signature legislation. It didn't matter what provisions the bill contained, such as expanding RECA to New Mexico and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime. They were going to vote against it rather than help Trump achieve a legislative victory.

To his core, Luján is a staunch Democrat who always puts his political party first. His ads are an attempt to make us forget that. It's his vote against RECA that he really wants us to forget. That's why Ben Ray's paying to run ads every day featuring Cordova, the face of RECA in New Mexico, also known as New America.

In our U.S. House races, I haven't seen a TV ad yet from Democrat Melanie Stansbury of the 1st Congressional District. I think I've seen one or two air from Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández of the 3rd Congressional District. Their races are as uncompetitive as Luján's Senate race. While they also voted against extending RECA to New Mexico last year, they're opting to save their money and ride the demographics to victory rather than attempt to whitewash their voting records.

Gabe Vasquez, seeking reelection in the 2nd Congressional District, is so bogged down by his "Defund the police" persona that he's enlisted the help of Bernalillo County Sheriff John Allen, who is running for reelection unopposed and therefore has plenty of time on his hands to play partisan politics.

Vasquez's radical views during his youthful indiscretion days of six years ago are so sketchy he's reaching back to his old-timey budget votes on the Las Cruces City Council to demonstrate his support for law enforcement.

Every time Vasquez runs for office between now and doomsday, his opponents will show his defund the police clip during a TV interview while wearing a mask. It's only a matter of time before that clip, and other glimpses into his political soul, disqualifies and displaces him from elected office.

The best ads of the political season are the "Better Call Gabe" ads. The ads are entertaining because they're funny. They're effective because they're memorable. They're powerful because they're true.

You won't see New Mexico Democrats airing ads in defense of biological males playing in female sports, but we all know that's where they stand, including Vasquez.

Democrats have chosen to die on the hill of supporting biological boys in girls sports. The "Better Call Gabe" ads from the CLE, the Congressional Leadership Fund, drive that point home, and could tip the scales in favor of Greg Cunningham, the one Republican who could win a major race in November.

I'll predict 50-50 in the CD2 race, decided by a couple hundred votes, with Cunningham eking out the victory. People like change in competitive races, that's why I give the edge to Cunningham.

So, I confess, I like the political ads many people loathe. Watching the campaign narratives and counternarratives evolve is my favorite part of news broadcasts and the political season. They are a window into the campaigns' war rooms and a barometer of their potential success. They're also free speech on steroids, as disingenuous as they can be.

So soak them up while we can. Other than some low-key municipal elections next year, we won't get another good batch of telling ads like this until 2028.