Bill Cassidy

Donald Trump’s efforts to assert total control over his party despite his sinking overall popularity achieved a landmark victory on Saturday with the resounding defeat of two-term Republican senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who had the temerity to vote to convict Trump of impeachable offenses in 2021. Now the president and his allies are eager to reinforce the loyalty lesson by purging rebellious GOP congressman Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s primary tomorrow.

Dr. Cassidy didn’t just lose. He ran an abject third in a primary with three viable candidates. Trump endorsee and congresswoman Julia Letlow will face another MAGA champion, former congressman and state treasurer (and like Cassidy, a physician) John Fleming, in a June 27 runoff. Cassidy, whose alleged betrayal of Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot was compounded by his on-again off-again conflicts with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s MAHA movement, became the first incumbent senator to finish lower than second place in a primary since 1944.

Massie is the next presidential intraparty target. The fiery libertarian-ish hardline conservative has been a regular thorn in the side to Trump and to his congressional allies for years. In March 2020, Trump called on his supporters to “throw Massie out of the Republican Party” because the Kentuckian was obstructing a Trump-backed COVID-relief package in the House. But during Trump’s second term, the rift with Massie has gotten a lot more personal. He is often the sole House GOP member to split with his party on key votes, including his lonely opposition to last year’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He has regularly opposed Trump’s overseas military adventures, most notably the Iran war. And most pointedly, Massie was a key figure in the congressional maneuver that forced disclosure of the Epstein files.

Unsurprisingly, Trump handpicked a primary challenger to Massie — farmer and distinguished war veteran Ed Gallrein — and personally campaigned in Kentucky, calling on his Bluegrass State fans to “get rid of this loser.” Massie, a seven-term incumbent, has retained strong support from fellow Kentucky heretic Senator Rand Paul and a few other right-wing dissidents like Lauren Boebert, former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, and right-wing celebrity influencer Tucker Carlson. Meanwhile, MAGA forces seeking to purge Massie have received major financial support from pro-Israel groups determined to make the incumbent pay for his early and regular calls for elimination of U.S. military aid to that country. Overall, as of May 11, Axios estimated that pro-Massie spending added up to $10.7 million while pro-Gallrein (or anti-Massie) spending reached $14.3 million, making this the most expensive House primary ever.

Gallrein has dodged debates with Massie and done little if anything to raise his profile above the assigned role of Trump’s instrument of vengeance. But Massie has gone medieval on his challenger, calling him “Woke Eddie” for past business connections to DEI initiatives. The ad war has gotten especially vicious, with one pro-Massie group focusing on pro-LGBTQ Gallrein donor Paul Singer:

Meanwhile, Trump allies have resorted to AI deep-fake images depicting Massie in a “throuple” with AOC and Ilhan Omar:

Public polls of the contest indicate a close race. A Big Data survey showed the two candidates tied as of May 16, but the same day SoCal Strategies released a poll finding Gallrein ahead by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have both given Gallrein a late surge into the lead.

This is a heavily Republican district in a heavily Republican state, so the primary will be the final word for this particular House seat. But its national resonance is unmistakable. If Massie goes down, it will continue Trump’s successful May vengeance tour. It began on May 6 with his purge of Indiana state senators who defied his instructions to carry out a congressional gerrymander, continued with Cassidy’s defenestration, and could also extend tomorrow to Georgia, where longtime 2020 election Trump nemesis Brad Raffensperger is likely to lose a gubernatorial primary bid. If Massie survives, of course, it will be a major blow to the president’s perceived intraparty dominance, not to mention his ego.

More generally, we won’t know until November whether the political capital Trump has expended this year to enforce discipline in his own party ranks would have been better spent on the general election. Perhaps he’s as focused on the power of his MAGA movement within the GOP as on the GOP’s power over the country. Or maybe he’d just prefer not to think about November — which, if polls are to be believed, will make a mockery of all the post-2024 talk of Trump bestriding the country like a colossus.