Bill Cassidy

After a sleepy summer, Louisiana’s U.S. Senate campaign appears likely to kick into high gear now that the election is less than 60 days away.

Both candidates -- U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and farmer Jamie Davis – have been barnstorming the state to rally supporters. But the period immediately after Labor Day is typically when at least one of the candidates begins to pitch their message directly to voters statewide with television advertising.

Letlow, a Republican and the heavy favorite, will likely be first to hit the airwaves. Davis, the Democrat, has less money.

Both candidates won their party nominations on June 27 in runoff elections that drew a light 17% turnout of voters.

Letlow collected 180,000 votes in winning 57% of the vote on the Republican side. Davis received nearly 157,000 votes in securing 80% of the vote on the Democratic side.

Since then, neither candidate has attracted much notice.

“Louisianans are paying a lot more attention to the vote in Birmingham right now, LSU v the SEC, than to the one where two candidates are asking for a six-year contract to represent us in Washington,” said Mary-Patricia Wray, a lobbyist and strategist who is a Democrat but works with elected officials in both political parties.

What the candidates are saying

Letlow, 45, worked as a high-level administrator at the University of Louisiana-Monroe before winning election to the U.S. House in 2021 in a district that stretches from Monroe south to the Florida Parishes. She succeeded her husband, Luke, who had just won the seat but then died from Covid, and has won reelection twice.

In an interview Friday, Letlow identified two key issues in the Senate race: passing a catch-all bill aimed at benefiting farmers and a measure known as the SAVE act that Trump badly wants.

Like other Republicans, Letlow says it would provide stricter safeguards to prevent voter fraud. Democrats say it would discourage voting and note that voter fraud is practically non-existent.

Davis, 56, has worked for decades as a farmer in Tensas Parish in northeast Louisiana, growing cotton, corn and soybeans. He served one term on the Tensas Police Jury and was defeated for reelection.

As he campaigns, Davis is relying more on his personal biography than on a set of issues.

“What I’ve learned most about Louisiana is that people are hurting,” he said during a recent campaign appearance before a fired-up crowd at a church with a Black congregation in Gretna. “Everybody is struggling.”

Davis noted that he budgeted diesel at $3.25 per gallon when he drew up his expected farm costs this year. But it’s now more than $5 per gallon.

Bad blood among Republicans?

According to political analysts, the biggest challenge for Letlow heading to the Nov. 3 election is this: Can she unite the Republican base that splintered during the hard-fought primary campaign? And can she energize voters who supported President Donald Trump but are now disappointed with him?

With the strong support of Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry, Letlow knocked out Sen. Bill Cassidy in the May 16 primary and defeated state Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff.

Fleming remains bitter at how an outside group run by Landry supporters attacked him repeatedly as soft on immigration – which Fleming labeled “an absolute lie.”

On Tuesday, Fleming said he hasn’t heard from Letlow since his defeat and wouldn’t endorse her anyway.

“They said all sorts of things about me that weren’t true,” Fleming said. “I don’t think we have enough honesty in Baton Rouge and Washington as it is.”

Cassidy, who relentlessly attacked Letlow, has yet to endorse her. He didn’t respond to a text on Tuesday asking whether he will.

“There hasn’t been a healing that I’m aware of. That’s a problem for Letlow,” said Woody Jenkins, a former state representative from Baton Rouge who narrowly lost a Senate race 30 years ago. As chair of the East Baton Rouge Parish Republican Party, he backed Fleming during the Republican primary.

A hard road in a red state

Davis’ biggest challenge is this: Can he reach voters upset with Trump, Landry, the Iran war and moderately high inflation? And can he convince enough people to give him money because they believe he could pull off a major upset?

Davis has a tough case to make.

In a recent piece for Politico, senior political columnist Jonathan Martin wrote how Trump’s sagging fortunes were pulling down Republicans and outlined the path for Democrats to win five seats that would allow them to take back control of the Senate.

“Every wave election brings a late surprise, and if conditions deteriorate, there’s a chance Nebraska, Kansas and even Mississippi could fall,” Martin wrote.

Note that he did not include Louisiana.

“There are at least a dozen Republican-held seats where Democrats would have a ‘better’ chance (or less worse) than in Louisiana,” said Charlie Cook, a Shreveport native who founded and published The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan tracker of political campaigns. “Even if Democrats had an absolutely fabulous year, the Louisiana Senate race would not be in the mix.”

To be sure, that’s not how Davis and the grassroots team see the election.

“Mr. Jamie seems like a person who has gotten into the community and listened to problems,” said Che Jones, a business owner in Harvey, outside the church.

“We’ve got to send unbought fighters who represent the people to Washington,” said Myles Cooper, publisher of the Algiers Picayune. “This campaign represents ordinary Louisianans.”

Criss-crossing the state

In August, Letlow met with voters in 26 different parishes as part of a 64-parish tour before the Nov. 3 election.

“Julia’s path to victory is clear: She will continue crisscrossing the state, meeting voters where they are and contrasting her record of delivering for Louisiana with a Democrat Party that has been overrun by socialists and communists,” the Letlow campaign said.

Davis visited 18 cities from July 11 to Aug. 7 as part of what the Louisiana Democratic Party called “No More Silence: Road to the Polls.”