Bill Cassidy

Despite final polls showing Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow as the frontrunner in Saturday's three-way Republican Senate primary in Louisiana, few GOP insiders in the Pelican State are willing to predict the outcome with confidence.

The latest Quantus Insights survey shows Letlow leading likely Republican voters with 42%, followed by state Treasurer John Fleming at 30% and two-term Sen. Bill Cassidy at 20%.

But the numbers remain fluid.

An Emerson College poll conducted at the end of April painted a far different picture, showing Fleming narrowly ahead of Letlow, 28% to 27%, with Cassidy at 21%.

"It's a close race that will depend on turnout," former Rep. Bob Livingston, R-La., told Newsmax. "A while back, Cassidy wasn't given much chance, but his ads in the closing days have been very tough. At this point, it's a toss-up."

Cassidy has faced sustained attacks from President Donald Trump ever since the Louisiana senator voted to convict him during his second impeachment trial.

More recently, Cassidy again drew Trump's ire by opposing the nomination of Dr. Casey Means for U.S. surgeon general.

Republican operatives across Louisiana largely agree that Letlow's strength stems overwhelmingly from Trump's endorsement, which transformed a little-known congresswoman from northeast Louisiana into a statewide contender.

"Trump's endorsement is huge — that's why he's weighing in," a Republican activist who requested anonymity told Newsmax. "Letlow is from the far northeast corner of the state, while most of Louisiana's population is in the south. Without Trump's backing, she wouldn't have much of a chance statewide."

The same source added that Letlow has also benefited from the support network of Gov. Jeff Landry, particularly Landry chief of staff Kyle Ruckert, who has assisted her campaign.

Fleming, 74, entered the race early and spent months building support among Republican officeholders before Letlow joined the race with Trump's backing. Fleming is also known as a strong conservative who supports Trump's agenda.

With no candidate expected to secure an outright majority, political observers widely expect the race to head to a June 27 runoff.