Bill Cassidy

Gone are the national reporters who flocked to Louisiana to capture the political drama of whether U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy could survive President Donald Trump’s attempts to end his political career.

Gone, too, is Cassidy after U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow rode Trump’s endorsement to first place in the May 16 Republican primary with 45% of the vote, state Treasurer John Fleming ran second with 28%, and the senator finished third with 25% and was eliminated.

Letlow remains the favorite in the Senate race with early voting underway until Saturday in advance of the June 27 runoff election.

The Republican candidates are generating most of the attention, but farmer Jamie Davis and business owner Gary Crockett are vying on a separate ballot for the Democratic nomination on June 27.

The winners of each party runoff will face off in the Nov. 3 general election.

And the winner of that election will replace Cassidy.

Cassidy’s absence from the June 27 runoff will benefit Fleming, said Woody Jenkins, chair of the East Baton Rouge Parish Republican Party and a fervent Fleming supporter.

“There was a lot of anger toward Cassidy. It was seen as a way to pay back Trump by rejecting Cassidy. That anger and enthusiasm to remove Cassidy, that’s no longer in play,” said Jenkins, a former state representative who narrowly lost the 1996 Senate race.

Letlow, however, has Trump’s endorsement, has the most campaign money and is backed by a group associated with Gov. Jeff Landry that is slamming Fleming with an expensive ad campaign.

“If it’s a regular turnout for a statewide race, Julia Letlow will win fairly easily. Her challenge will be to get the people to vote,” said John Breaux, a Democrat who won three terms in the Senate beginning in 1986.

As during the primary, Letlow and Fleming are both claiming to be Trump’s preferred candidate. Letlow cites the endorsement, while Fleming points to his work as Trump’s deputy chief of staff during his first term and a more conservative voting record in Congress.

Trump reiterated his support for Letlow on Friday in a Truth Social post.

“A Proud Mother of two children, Julia is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Louisiana, and would continue doing so in the United States Senate,” Trump wrote.

AI video

Letlow blasted Fleming on Friday for sharing a video in which an AI version of her refers to her late husband, Luke. Fleming defended it as a parody and called on her to take down “dishonest” and “nasty” videos of him that are being broadcast by an outside group allied with Landry, The Accountability Project. The group does not have to disclose its donors and cannot legally coordinate its activities with the Letlow campaign.

Political insiders were buzzing Friday as word spread that Fleming had a small lead over Letlow in a new poll conducted by Greg Rigamer, a New Orleans-based pollster.

It was commissioned by superlobbyist Alton Ashy, a Letlow supporter.

Ashy would not disclose the results, saying only, “It’s closer than anybody wished it was.”

But numbers provided to the newspaper showed Fleming with 40.3% of the vote compared to 37.7% for Letlow.

Landry got state legislators in his first act as governor in 2024 to change the election system by moving from a “jungle,” or open, primary to a closed primary. Under previous long-standing rules, voters went to the polls in November and December. Under the new rules, they vote in a May party primary, a June party runoff and the November general election.

Voters and poll commissioners expressed confusion and frustration in the May closed primary, especially because of the provision that allows no-party voters to participate by choosing to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.

The change generated only a 28% turnout in the primary, compared to a 50% turnout in past even-year, nonpresidential elections. The expectation for the June 27 turnout is several percentage points lower.

No other statewide races or constitutional amendments are on the upcoming ballot.

The incumbent

After running first in the May 16 primary, Letlow has played the role of an incumbent marching to victory, announcing the endorsement of 14 of the 28 Republican state senators and 40 of the 73 GOP House members.

Letlow has also announced endorsements by eight Republican U.S. senators and Rep. Steve Scalise, who represents suburban New Orleans and is the No. 2 Republican in the House.

On Saturday, her supporters in the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee beat back an effort to have the party endorse Fleming. Several state central committee members said officials with the Letlow campaign and the state party rallied members to have the committee vote to endorse neither candidate.

On Tuesday, Letlow released her first TV ad. Focusing on a hot topic for conservatives, an announcer says “she’s leading the fight to keep biological boys out of girls' sports.”

On Thursday, Letlow released the most detailed policy platform of any candidate, a 15-point plan that calls for extending the Trump tax cuts approved by Congress last year, which the Congressional Budget Office says are exacerbating the country’s deficits. Letlow also favors expanding broadband access in rural areas, dredging more navigation canals and finishing construction of Trump’s wall on the Mexican border, among other priorities.

“Everywhere we go, people are energized for change, about the possibility of generational change,” Letlow, 45, said in an interview Friday.

Fleming, 74, said he will win because he has a more committed base of supporters thanks to his strong opposition to carbon capture and sequestration — a technique to take carbon emissions from manufacturing plants and inject them deep underground.

Fleming said voters are receptive to his message that carbon capture and sequestration will poison waterways and strip landowners of property rights where companies want to store the carbon.