Byron Donalds

Representative Byron Donalds appears well positioned to secure the Republican nomination for Florida governor, with recent polls showing him holding a commanding lead over his GOP rivals roughly one month before the primary.

Donalds, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, has notably not secured the backing of Governor Ron DeSantis, the term-limited Republican incumbent. DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 percentage points in 2022, and Trump won the Sunshine State by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

No Democrat has won Florida's governorship since 1994, and the Cook Political Report rates the 2026 governor's race as Solid Republican. Florida's governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, a cycle that includes several high-profile open-seat races in states such as Georgia, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

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Newsweek has reached out to Donalds’ press team for comment via email on Tuesday.

What Do Polls of the Republican Primary Show?

A recent Tyson Group poll of 600 likely Florida Republican voters put Donalds at 48 percent support from survey participants, a notable lead among other Republican candidates.

No other candidate reached double digits. Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins was second with 9 percent support, followed by investor James Fishback at 8 percent and former House Speaker Paul Renner at 4 percent. About 26 percent of likely Republican voters remained undecided.

Newsweek contacted Tyson Group seeking information on the poll's methodology, including when it was conducted and its margin of error.

A June Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) poll shows Donalds with 54 percent, compared to Fishback with 8 percent, Collins at 5 percent, and Renner with 2 percent. Nearly a third of participants, 31 percent, were undecided.

A Fabrizio, Lee, and Associates poll of 420 likely Republican primary voters conducted between April 26-30 found Byron with a similar lead, 54 percent, with Fishback at 9 percent, Collings at 7 percent, and Renner around 2 percent. It has a margin of error of ±4.8 percentage points.

While lower than some more recent surveys, an Emerson College poll conducted in late March still showed Donalds comfortably ahead of the field with 46 percent support. That poll found candidates Collins and Fishback with 4 percent and Renner with 3 percent. Nearly 40 percent of voters were undecided.

The poll of 465 likely GOP primary voters was conducted between March 29 and 31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

What To Know About the Race

Trump, a resident of Florida, endorsed Donalds in February 2025 and has repeated his endorsement several times. In a late May Truth Social post, he said, "I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!" The president added, "Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!"

Donalds has raised a notable amount in the race, with his campaign reporting that he raised more than $22 million in the first three months of 2026, for a total of $67 million back in May.

“Byron Donalds is dominating the Republican primary race for Florida Governor,” Jeremy Sheftel, AIF vice president of political operations, said in a June press release. “With a commanding $81-million-dollar war chest, an extensive campaign and field apparatus, and a complete and total endorsement from President Donald J. Trump, Donalds is in an extremely advantageous position to be Florida’s Republican nominee for Governor with early voting beginning in two short months.”

As of June, Renner had around $3.2 million cash on hand, according to WLRN Public Media, while the outlet noted that Collins pulled in a $5 million contribution from Propel Florida LLC, to put his campaign account and political committee around $6 million. Fishback has about $112,000 on hand as of June 1, the outlet reported.

On the Democratic side, WLRN Public Media noted that Jolly raised around $1.2 million in April and May and spent around $6 million, leaving him with around $2 million on hand.

While DeSantis has not endorsed anyone in the race, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier and Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia both endorsed Donalds earlier this month. The Florida Education Association, which represents more than 120,000 educators, endorsed Democrat David Jolly.

Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary is scheduled for August 18. Early voting begins August 8 and runs through August 15, while the voter registration deadline is July 20.

General Election Match Up Polls

On the Democratic side, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings suspended his campaign in June after being diagnosed with prostate cancer, leaving former Congressman David Jolly as the party's leading contender for the nomination.

Newsweek has reached out to Jolly’s press team for comment via email on Tuesday.

A June Change Research survey found Jolly, a former Republican who switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, leading Donalds in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent and has a slightly larger margin among likely voters with 49 percent compared to 43 percent. Among Democrats, Jolly garners 94 percent support while Donalds' has support of 77 percent among Republicans.

The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters, of whom 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 midterm election. The survey was conducted between June 11 and 14 and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

A previous Change Research May poll shows Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll was taken from May 13 to May 16 among 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 say they will likely vote in the midterm election. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

In a survey at the end of March by Emerson College Polling, Donalds landed 44 percent of the vote compared to Jolly's 39 percent. The poll shows that 17 percent are undecided. It was taken from March 29 to March 31 among 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

With Donalds dominating the Republican field, attention is increasingly shifting to a potential general-election matchup against Democrat Jolly, who has emerged as the party's presumptive nominee.