Byron Donalds

Congressman Byron Donalds is the frontrunner in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary, largely due to an endorsement from President Trump.

Donalds' rivals have attacked his past, campaign funding, and stance on data centers, while he has refused to debate them.

While Trump's endorsement is helping Donalds in the primary, it could be a liability in the November general election.

Four prominent Florida Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for governor, but only one – Byron Donalds – has the endorsement of President Trump.

That’s made all the difference.

Polls show that GOP voters in the Aug. 18 primary look certain to make the three-term Naples congressman their choice heading into the November contest against likely Democratic nominee David Jolly.

Term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis hasn’t endorsed. But with Donalds wrapped in Trump’s embrace, the primary hasn’t been much of a contest.

And yet it includes plenty of sniping.

The clash among candidates

Among those trailing Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins recently tried unsuccessfully to oust conservative activist James Fishback from the ballot. That was over claims he failed to meet the state’s seven-year residency requirement.

Fishback wants Collins to resign, after his challenge was rejected by a court.

Former House Speaker Paul Renner of Palm Coast has been targeting Donalds, raising red flags about the frontrunner’s taking in more than $5 million in campaign contributions from data center interests.

Renner, 59, has called for a moratorium on data centers – while Donalds has tried to soften his once go-go stance on artificial intelligence, amid rising voter opposition.

“In my Florida, if you don’t protect our pocketbooks and our people, you won’t build data centers. Period,” Donalds said in TV ads.

Fishback, 31, also has inserted racial rhetoric into his attacks on Donalds, who is Black. He’s called him a “slave to his donors,” and a “DEI Republican,” attempting to fan Republican voters’ opposition to diversity, equity and inclusion and capitalizing on Trump-fueled racial polarization.

Collins, 50, in campaign social media postings has touched on Donalds’ arrests, at age 18 for marijuana possession and at 20 for a fraudulent bank card transaction.

The marijuana charge was dropped after pre-trial diversion and a fine; the fraud charge resulted in probation and his record expunged. Donalds has acknowledged these arrests but says he turned his life around soon after.

Donalds declines to engage with GOP rivals

Donalds, 47, who has raised more than $100 million for his campaign, refuses to engage with his rivals. He won’t debate any of his leading GOP opponents, although he is already calling for three debates with Jolly in advance of the November election.

The Brooklyn-born Donalds, who moved to Florida for college and stayed, hasn’t advanced eye-popping proposals as he campaigns across the state.

But he hews closely to Trump’s MAGA themes of restricting immigration, barring transgender rights and giving parents prime authority over their children’s education and vaccine compliance.

Donalds’ Trump-first strategy appears to be working, at least among Republican primary voters: “Every indication we have … is that it’s Donalds by a landslide,” said Sean Freeder, a University of North Florida political scientist and pollster.

Trump endorsement: Good in August, maybe not in November

While the Trump endorsement looks sufficient for Donalds to sweep the field in August, it may prove an albatross in November.

The president’s favorability rating is underwater, with 51% of likely Florida voters disapproving of his job performance, including 18% of Republicans, according to a July UNF survey.

Trump’s disapproval is at 55% among Florida no-party voters, making Donalds’ endorsement by the president even more of a wild card in the November election.

There are 1.5 million more registered Republicans in Florida than Democrats. But Democrats combined with no-party voters and those registered with other parties represent 58% of the state’s electorate.

DeSantis is more popular than Trump in Florida, polls show. But the governor has stayed out of the Republican race to be his successor – although each of the candidates tout what DeSantis has done in his eight years as chief executive.

A campaign vow from each Republican is that he’ll keep the state in the politically conservative lane.

Collins has cast himself as “DeSantis-appointed” in his role as lieutenant governor. But it hasn’t moved him up in polls, with surveys showing Donalds poised to capture a clear majority of the vote while his rivals trail at 10% or less.

But there still may be as much as 23% of Republican voters undecided, as a recent Donalds’ campaign poll showed.

Renner makes play for MAHA followers

Renner has recently made a play for U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again followers by pledging to retain vaccine-skeptical Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo as the top health officer in a Renner administration, as unlikely as that now appears.

Democrat Jolly, and virtually every Democratic candidate for office this season, has pledged to make Florida more affordable for residents. Republicans, in charge of state government for 27 years now, also have seized on the theme, top of mind for many voters.

Renner has launched a 'Florida First Affordability Plan,' built around rolling back property taxes and shifting more taxes onto tourists and investors. He’d also further limit lawsuits against insurance companies, in a bid to lower rates, and says he’d improve health access by calling on Congress to repeal the Affordable Care Act and give states more authority over health care.

Collins’ ‘Live Florida’ plan includes steps intended to reduce home and auto insurance costs, bring down utility rates, and provide more workforce training for employees and students.

Fishback would eliminate all property taxes on primary residences, erase highway tolls for Florida residents and impose a 50% “sin tax” on the income of OnlyFans content creators.

Affordability tops with voters, candidates respond

Donalds says he’ll increase the state’s housing stock by shortening permit times, which could help lower construction costs, while also overhauling the state’s property insurance regulatory structure.

Donalds, like all the Republican contenders, is in favor of cutting property taxes, saying that if the ballot measure set to go before voters in November fails, he’d bring back another proposal next year.

The frontrunner’s overwhelming lead in fundraising has carried over to TV spots going before Florida voters leading to Aug. 18.

About $30 million has been spent in support of Donalds’ campaign, representing about three-quarters of all ad spending so far in the GOP primary, according to AdImpact, a tracking service.

A new Donalds’ ad focuses on affordability. On a basketball court, shooting baskets with his three sons, Donalds warns that, “Florida is pricing out our future.” He promises to “cut property taxes, lower insurance rates and slash the cost of housing.”