Byron Donalds

A new poll suggests Representative Byron Donalds' path to Florida's governor's mansion may be more competitive than earlier surveys indicated, with Democrat David Jolly now holding a slightly larger edge in a hypothetical general election matchup.

The latest Change Research survey, a Democratic-aligned polling firm, found Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, marking a slight shift from previous polling that had shown the Republican congressman down 5 percent last month.

The findings represent a change from polling released in May by the pollster as well, showing Jolly up 4 percent and an earlier statewide survey by Emerson College Polling showing Donalds ahead of Jolly by several percentage points.

Read More on Politics

While the new results suggest Democrats could be more competitive than expected in the open-seat race to replace term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis, the contest remains in its early stages before the general election campaign intensifies.

President Donald Trump won the Sunshine State by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, and no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 20 years.

When reached for comment, Donalds' campaign referred Newsweek to Communications Director Gates McGavick's post on X, saying, "Lol. Same pollster did work in Florida in the 2020 cycle -- they were 13 points off in Miami Dade for the Presidential, and 13 points off in Florida's 15th Congressional District. In other words, this is a lazy psy op to swindle national Dems into lighting money on fire in FL."

Newsweek also reached out to Jolly's campaign via email on Thursday for comment.

What To Know

According to the poll, Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, leads Donalds 46 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. Only 45 percent of the likely voters “have heard or read about David Jolly,” the poll shows.

Despite name recognition, Donalds continues to receive mixed marks from voters. According to the poll, 19 percent of likely voters—and 15 percent of likely Republican voters—said they had not seen, heard or read anything about him. More than half (54 percent) of respondents said they had seen Donalds' television advertisements.

The poll also shows that 31 percent approve of the job Donalds is doing in Congress. "Despite overwhelming force, Bryon Donalds has not knitted up the Republican primary. Donalds has deep problems within the Republican electorate, and his numerous negatives put him in a very vulnerable position headed into the general election. However, if his primary opponents cannot raise the resources to counter Donalds’ paid effort, the Trump endorsement will put him over the top," the poll says in part.

The survey polled 1,348 registered voters, of whom 1,004 are likely to vote, from July 9 to July 11, 2026, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Despite Jolly's lead in the latest survey, the race is far from settled.

Florida has backed Republican candidates in recent statewide elections by comfortable margins, and Donalds continues to be viewed as the likely frontrunner for the GOP nomination. Whether Jolly can maintain his advantage will likely depend on factors including the state's political environment, voter turnout, fundraising and the broader national mood heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

What Other Polling Shows

According to last month's survey by the pollster, Jolly led Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent and had a slightly larger margin among likely voters with 49 percent compared to 43 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters, of whom 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 midterm election. The survey's margin of error is 2.8 percent.

Another recent Change Research poll shows Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll was taken from May 13 to May 16 among 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 say they will likely vote in the midterm election. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

Notably, The Cook Political Report has the race in the "Solid Republican" category.