Byron Donalds

Republican Representative Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 5 points in a new University of North Florida poll of Florida’s governor race.

The new poll found Donalds leading Jolly 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in the Florida governor race, with an additional 6 percent of respondents still undecided about how they will vote and 5 percent saying they would vote for another candidate. It signals a potentially close race in the Sunshine State despite its rightward drift over the past decade.

Why It Matters

The poll offers the latest look at Florida’s 2026 governor race, showing how two well-known political figures stack up in a race Democrats are hoping to make competitive in the November midterm elections. Polling does not necessarily predict outcomes but provides an early snapshot of candidates’ name recognition, partisan enthusiasm and the issues motivating voters heading into the statewide contest.

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Florida, once a battleground state, shifted toward Republicans over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in the 2024 election. But Democrats believe a more favorable national environment could give them a chance to compete in the state. The poll points to a closer race than other recent governor races in Florida.

Donalds Leads Jolly in New Florida Governor Poll

The potential matchup between Donalds, who represents the Fort Myers area in Congress and has received Trump's endorsement, and Jolly, a former Republican who represented Pinellas County in Congress from 2014 to 2017, was included in the new University of North Florida poll. Both candidates currently hold leads in their respective primaries, which are scheduled for August 18, 2026, according to other polling.

The University of North Florida poll showed that among voters not affiliated with either party, a critical voting bloc, Donalds’ support stood at 39 percent, compared to Jolly’s 38 percent.

Jolly also performed well among Hispanic and Latino voters, an important voting group in Florida, winning support from 53 percent of them compared to Donalds’ 35 percent. For comparison, Trump won 58 percent of Latino voters in Florida in 2024, according to CNN exit polling data.

The poll was conducted from July 8 to 17, 2026 among 848 likely voters, using both telephone and web-based surveys. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Donalds’ lead was more narrow than that of Republican Senator Ashley Moody in the Senate race, as the poll found her up 10 points over Democratic candidate Alexander Vindman and 8 points over state lawmaker Angie Nixon.

Florida voters narrowly disapprove of Trump, according to the poll, which found that 51 percent disapprove of him while 48 percent approve of the president. Republicans were also more sure they would vote, with 93 percent saying they would "definitely" do so compared to 91 percent of Democrats.

In a statement to Newsweek, Jolly senior adviser Mark Riddle pushed back on the polling.

"The UNF poll samples a universe that doesn’t exist in Florida’s November election. Even with its flaws, it still affirms that David Jolly is well positioned to win the governorship," Riddle said.

Newsweek also reached out to the Donalds campaign for comment via email.

What Other Polling Shows

Other recent polling suggests a single-digit race.

A Change Research poll, which surveyed 1,593 likely voters from May 13 to 16, showed Jolly up 4 points with 46 percent compared to Donalds’ 42 percent support. It found that 88 percent of Democrats were motivated to vote, compared to 75 percent of Republicans. Change Research is affiliated with Democrats.

A survey from Cherry Communications, conducted among 604 likely voters from May 1 to 9, showed Donalds up 8 points with 47 percent to Jolly’s 39 percent. It was commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A Stetson University poll gave Donalds a lead with 47 percent to Jolly’s 40 percent. It surveyed 848 likely voters from March 15 to April 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Election forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball do not currently view the race as competitive, rating Florida as safe or solid Republican in this year’s elections.

Donalds faces several other Republicans in the primary including Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and Azora Partners founder James Fishback. Jolly is also running in a primary against state Representative Dotie Joseph; Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings withdrew from the race.

What Prediction Markets Show

Republicans are favored in prediction markets, holding an 81 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and an 82 percent on Polymarket as of Monday morning.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Florida’s Republican Shift

Florida, once a premier battleground, has become increasingly difficult for Democrats over the past decade. Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, up from a three-point victory in 2020 and a one-point win in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.

Republicans have also expanded their voter registration advantage, while Democrats have struggled to remain competitive in statewide races. As of June 30, there were 5,569,028 registered Republicans and 4,040,000 registered Democrats in Florida, with an additional 3,324,324 "no party affiliation" voters, according to the Florida Division of Elections.

Democrats outnumbered Republicans as recently as 2020.

Several factors contributed to the realignment. Republicans have made inroads among Latino voters, flipping traditionally Democratic areas, including Miami-Dade County, while Democrats have struggled to counter GOP messaging in the state.

Population growth also played a role. Florida added millions of new residents, many arriving from more conservative states during the COVID-19 pandemic. The GOP’s growing edge was reflected at the ballot box, culminating in DeSantis’ landslide reelection in 2022.

Those victories allowed Republicans to enact a wave of conservative policies in the state that may also be a draw to Republican voters fleeing more progressive states like New York. Over the past several years, Florida enacted conservative‑leaning policies on education, voting, immigration and social issues.

Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, won his first election in 2018 by less than a single percentage point against Democrat Andrew Gillum. He defeated Democratic former Governor Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points in 2022.