Byron Donalds

Republican Byron Donalds leads in fundraising and polling for the Florida governor's race.

Donalds' close ties to President Trump could be a challenge in the general election.

Economic issues, including inflation and unemployment, may create obstacles for the Republican candidate.

Donalds faces scrutiny from rivals over his past criminal record and his refusal to participate in debates.

Can anything stop Byron Donalds?

Vastly far ahead in fund-raising and polling, the Republican congressman is well on his way to winning his party’s August nomination for governor.

Even in what is shaping up as a general election contest against Democrat David Jolly, Donalds leads in most of the handful of head-to-head surveys. Again, he’s miles ahead in money raised.

Heading toward a November election Republicans hold a 1.5 million voter advantage over Democrats in registered voters. And history shows Democrats haven’t captured the Florida governor’s office in 32 years.

But, still….

Here’s a look at some of the possible obstacles lying in the Naples congressman’s path in the months ahead.

The duality of a Trump endorsement

Donalds has been endorsed for Florida governor not once, but twice by President Trump, first in February 2025 and again in May.

The latest seemed designed to be a reminder, coming closer to the August primary contest, where Donalds is facing several Republican opponents.

While prominent, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and former financial executive James Fishback have been able to gain no traction against Donalds.

The Trump endorsement fueled Donalds’ campaign war chest. It’s also allowed him to capture 54% of Republican support, according to a recent Associated Industries of Florida poll, which showed his backing more than three times that of his opponents combined.

A Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds – as he’s described in almost every one of his press releases – should be enough to power him to a primary victory. But it could prove an albatross in November.

“The numbers coming in right now for the Trump administration are pretty bad,” said Sean Freeder, a political scientist and pollster at the University of North Florida. With Trump’s disapproval rate hovering close to 60% nationally, Donalds’ tie to the president will be weaponized by Democrats in November.

Gas prices, the Iran War, and Trump and Donalds’ support for the construction of hyperscale data centers are just a few of the issues that could trouble the Republican’s candidacy in the general election.

Even before that, though, GOP primary rival Collins has begun hitting Donalds. Among the points of separation that Collins is drawing is that he was appointed lieutenant governor by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Collins clearly is banking on some Florida Republicans feeling closer to DeSantis than Trump. And DeSantis’ popularity ratings top Trump’s in Florida.

Fishback has also been taunting Donalds at appearances, occasionally with a bullhorn, trying to get the frontrunner to engage in debates, which he declines.

Poll numbers don’t suggest that it’ll be a contest. But the August primary will be Donalds’ first real strength test.

It's the economy, stupid

Florida’s unemployment rate has ticked up above the national average. High inflation and affordability issues weigh on many families across the state.

But Donalds has the added burden of being a three-term member of Congress. The disapproval rating for Congress among Americans tied an all-time high of 86% in an April Gallup poll.

Republicans also have been in charge in Tallahassee for more than a generation.

Could this be the year that the burden of a stumbling economy, a Trump presidency, and a weariness from eight years of the term-limited DeSantis as governor prompts a majority of Floridians to go for Democrat Jolly in November?

“Byron Donalds has tied himself at the hip to Donald Trump,” said Mark Riddle, a senior advisor to the Jolly campaign. “He owns high costs, he owns these wars, he owns not being able to fix the insurance crisis.

“He owns all of it,” Riddle added. “You’ve got one person who speaks to an audience of one, who is Donald Trump and you have somebody in David Jolly who is talking to every Florida voter.”

Donalds has tried to focus his campaign on pocketbook issues. He’s talked of regulatory changes intended to lower insurance premiums and making it easier for builders to construct affordable housing.

Still, he was one of only 32 Republicans – six from Florida – who voted against a massive home affordability bill passed with bipartisan support and sent June 23 to Trump.

Donalds’ fate in the governor’s race may hinge on how unhappy voters are in November.

“Just because Donald Trump endorses someone in the primary, that doesn’t make them a good general election candidate,” Riddle said.

Inside the numbers, it's not all good

Republican strength in Florida has soared since the party overtook Democrats in registered voters in 2021, for the first time in modern history.

The GOP represents 41% of Florida voters, to Democrats’ 30%. But no party-affiliated voters and those registered with minor parties are another 28%. Signs are that a lot of these NPA voters are unhappy with the Trump presidency and, by extension, the GOP.

That’s what Jolly is banking on in November.

Democrats have been flipping Republican-held seats in state legislatures in Florida and across the nation. And Hispanic voters who had backed Trump strongly in 2024 are defecting from the president over his handling of immigration and the economy.

Donalds also is trying to become Florida’s first Black governor.

The GOP supports the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent diminishing of the Voting Rights Act. And DeSantis’ state policies moved Florida away from promoting diversity, while also restricting minority influence in redistricting, government contracting and even in the history taught in schools.

Analysts ponder whether even a Trump-backed Black candidate can expect unwavering support from Republican voters who have supported these racially-polarizing actions.

His Republican rival, Fishback, has a new ad out that begins, “My opponent, Byron Donalds, is Black,” before he goes on to say, “But that doesn’t matter.”

Fishback then pivots to attacking Donalds on the issues of data centers, abortion and crime.

Donalds' history and the debate over debates

The Republican frontrunner was arrested at age 18 for selling marijuana and at 21 for a bank credit card scheme that resulted in a felony.

On the marijuana charge he entered pre-trial diversion and for the larceny charge, he drew two years’ probation, with a court later expunging his record.

Donalds’ rivals have raised questions about his character. And it’s certain that Donalds’ past will shadow his campaign through the primary and general election.

Collins has a new social media post contrasting his own 20-plus years of military service with Donalds’ criminal past.

These attacks could be amplified in a debate between the candidates. But Donalds may not have to worry about these – at least heading into the primary.

The Florida Republican Party recently dropped plans to host a debate at its June 27 Sunshine State Showdown conference because only Donalds met its high bar for qualifying.

A Donalds spokesman downplayed the need for debates, saying they only “legitimize campaigns that have failed to gain meaningful support.”