Chris Pappas

A new poll in New Hampshire has delivered an early warning sign for Democrats ahead of next year’s midterm elections, showing Republican Governor Chris Sununu trailing Democratic Representative Chris Pappas by just three points in a prospective matchup for the state’s congressional seat.

The race, which has been rated as “lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report, appears to be tightening sharply compared to earlier polling, suggesting Republicans could be making fresh inroads in the Northeast.

Newsweek contacted the candidates in the race for comment on this story via email.

Why It Matters

With the 2026 midterms looming and redistricting in several states expected to favor the GOP, Democrats can ill afford to lose ground in districts they currently hold. New Hampshire’s seat has been seen as relatively secure, but a strong showing by Sununu — a popular, moderate Republican — could signal trouble for Democrats nationally as they defend their position in Congress.

What To Know

The latest co/efficient survey, conducted between October 9-13 among 1,034 likely general election voters, puts Pappas on 45 percent to Sununu's 42 percent. That is unchanged from the previous co/efficient survey, conducted between September 10-12.

But it comes as other polls have put Pappas further ahead of his opponent. A UNH poll, released September 29, showed Pappas leading Sununu 49 percent to 43 percent.

The New Hampshire seat is open after Senator Jeanne Shaheen announced in March 2025 that she will retire rather than seek a fourth term. Since then, several candidates have come forward to replace her.

On the Republican side, Sununu is joined by former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Meanwhile, Pappas declared his candidacy early for the Democratic primary.

Polls show that Pappas has a much more substantial lead over Brown. The UNH poll showed Pappas leading Brown 52 percent to 37 percent. While the co/efficient survey showed Pappas 10 points ahead of Brown, with 49 percent to his 39 percent.

The UNH poll also put Sununu way ahead of Brown in the Republican primary.

Among likely Republican primary voters, 42 percent said they would vote for Sununu, compared with 19 percent for Brown, with 28 percent undecided. Seven percent chose New Hampshire State Senator Dan Innis, who dropped out on September 25 and endorsed Sununu.

Sununu enters the race with several advantages. As the brother of former Governor Chris Sununu and the son of former Governor John H. Sununu, he benefits from strong name recognition across New Hampshire. He’s also viewed more positively among likely Republican primary voters, with a net favorability of +35 compared to Brown’s +8, according to the UNH poll.

The co/efficient poll showed that that while Pappas maintains a relatively balanced image among voters, Sununu is viewed somewhat more positively overall, with fewer voters holding strong negative views of him. Pappas’s favorability stands at 47 percent (very or somewhat favorable) against 36 percent unfavorable, while Sununu’s is slightly higher at 48 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable.

By contrast, Brown remains less well-known and more polarizing, with only 30 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably, while more than a quarter of voters say they are unsure about him.

What People Are Saying

Democratic Representative Chris Pappas, in a statement: "Senator Shaheen is a trailblazing leader who has dedicated her career to putting New Hampshire first and working each and every day to protect our communities, strengthen our economy, and keep our nation safe. Her effective and determined leadership as our governor and United States senator has brought people together to solve tough problems and move New Hampshire forward."

What Happens Next

The Midterms are set for November 2026.