Christopher Smith

FORT MYERS, Fla. — Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and SoxProspects.com all rank 23-year-old left-handed pitcher Payton Tolle the Red Sox’ No. 1 prospect.

The three sites also rank 20-year-old shortstop Franklin Arias Boston’s No. 2 prospect and 23-year-old left-hander Connelly Early the organization’s No. 3 prospect.

I would order it slightly differently, putting Early No. 1, Tolle No. 2 and Arias No. 3.

This isn’t a slight against Tolle. He has an elite fastball and should put together a long, successful big league career.

But Early has better secondary pitches and the strength/size he added in the offseason have made his fastball noticeably better than it was last year.

In two spring training outings, Early’s four-seam fastball has topped out at 97.1 mph and has averaged 95.3 mph, an increase from his average of 94.0 mph last year. His 21 four-seamers this spring have a perceived velocity of 96.2 mph.

He has well-above average extension down the mound (6.9 feet), which contributes to hitters seeing his fastball 0.9 mph harder than its actual speed.

But there’s more to it than extension, said catcher Ronald Rosario, who caught Early at Double-A Portland.

“Connelly has a lot of pitches, five pitches,” Rosario said through translator Carlos Villoria Benítez. “For me, the fastball looks harder because he relies so much on his offspeed stuff like the changeup, sweeper, curveball. And then when you throw the fastball, it seems faster than what it actually is.”

Former Red Sox pitcher Kyle Harrison said the same thing last year — that Early’s fastball plays so well in part because he has above-average secondary pitches.

Baseball America grades Early’s changeup a 60 (plus) and his sweeper 55 (above average). As BA noted, Early’s sweeper “produced a 100% whiff rate—not a typo—on 10 regular-season swings" in the majors.

With higher velocity, Early could turn into more than a No. 3 starter, which Baseball America called “his ceiling.”

“He trusts every single pitch that he has,” Rosario said. “He’s able to throw every pitch in any count, and I feel like that’s what makes him so good.”

Tolle’s elite fastball, massive frame (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) and meteoric rise through the system in his first full professional season in 2025 set him apart from others and have led to his No. 1 ranking.

He made his pro debut last April 8 at High-A Greenville and finished the season Oct. 1 on the mound at Yankee Stadium in a relief appearance in Game 3 of the AL Wild Card Series.

On the 20-80 grading scale, Baseball America grades Tolle’s fastball an 80 (top of the scale) and MLB Pipeline grades it a 70 (well above average). The extension he creates down the mound (7.5 feet, 99th percentile in the majors in 2025) helps make his perceived fastball velocity two mph faster than the actual velocity. He has thrown 19 four-seam fastballs this spring averaging 96.7 mph but the pitch has a perceived velocity of 98.7 mph.

“His fastball is something amazing,” Rosario said. “He throws 96, 97 but it feels like 100 because of his extension. So it’s crazy to see him .... and how good his fastball is because of that.

“If you’re hitting or catching, you feel like it’s two, three miles faster than it actually is,” Rosario added.

Tolle’s fastball has the potential to be elite. But it’s not elite yet because he relies on it too often without any go-to secondary pitches. In the majors last year, opponents went 13-for-46 (.283) with four home runs against his fastball, which he used 64.1% of the time.

Tolle, who focused heavily on his changeup in the offseason, has no other pitch besides his fastball graded higher than 50 (average) on the 20-80 scale.

That obviously can change and likely will. But for now, Early is a more advanced. well-rounded pitcher.

Gonzales produces 117.3 mph exit velocity

Justin Gonzales, a 19-year-old right-handed hitting prospect who stands at 6-foot-5, has had exit velocities of 117.3 mph, 110.0 mph and 108.8 mph in major league spring training games.

Oviedo has 98th percentile extension

Johan Oviedo, who’s competing for the fifth starter job, also has elite extension like Tolle and Early. He ranked in the 98th percentile (7.4 feet) among major leaguers in 2025.

Manager Alex Cora said earlier in camp that the Red Sox want Oviedo’s delivery to be more explosive. They want him to create more force down the mound.

“I think just maximize who you are and his extension is elite,” Cora said.

Oviedo’s fastball has averaged 94.6 mph this spring with a perceived velocity of 96.2 mph.

Song reaches 96.7 mph

Non-roster invitee Noah Song has thrown 2 ⅓ scoreless and hitless innings across two Grapefruit League relief outings. He has allowed one walk while striking out three. He also hit a batter.

The 28-year-old righty struck out Twins non-roster invitee Andrew Cossetti on a 96.7 mph fastball on Feb. 28.

“I think Noah made a good adjustment at the beginning of last year. He added a curveball,” Rosario said. “He’s also one of those pitchers that wants to get in and out, he wants to get quick outs. It doesn’t matter what count, if he has men on base or not, he tries to attack batters, he’s very aggressive.”

Guerrero has topped out at 100.6 mph

Non-roster invitee Tayron Guerrero was inspired to begin playing baseball in 2007, when he saw the final two innings of the World Series.

“That night I watched the Red Sox win the championship. The next day I’m like, ‘I want to play baseball,’” Guerrero said.

The 35-year-old righty, who pitched in Japan last year, has tossed 4 scoreless innings across three relief outings this spring. He has allowed four hits and two walks while striking out four.

His 39 four-seam fastballs have averaged 98.3 mph with a perceived velocity of 99.8 mph. He’s topped out at 100.6 mph.

Rosario gives thoughts on some other minor league pitchers

Ronald Rosario gave his thoughts on several other Red Sox minor league pitchers who he caught at Portland last year.

Hayden Mullins: “He’s a very good pitcher,” Rosario said. “He was working on a new pitch, a cutter. He did a pretty good job last year.”

Tyler Uberstine: “He’s very aggressive with his pitches,” Rosario said. “I feel like he trusts every pitch in his repertoire. And he’s able to attack batters with every single one of his pitches.”

Jeremy Wu-Yelland: “A couple of his best pitches were the cutter and the sweeper,” Rosario said. “His fastball cuts a little bit, which is good. And also he’s learning a couple more pitches like the changeup and sinker to add to his repertoire. So I think those additions will be very good for him.”

John Holobetz: “He’s a quick pitcher. He likes to work fast. He likes to get quick outs,” Rosario said. ‘I feel like his slider is his best pitch. He also has like a rising fastball.”

Eduardo Rivera: “He’s a big guy,” Rosario said. “He throws a lot of pitches. I also think he has good extension. I do think he needs to trust a little bit more his pitches because his stuff is very good. And I think pitching for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic is going to help him to do that. So I feel like I think that’s where he needs to improve and have more confidence in his stuff.”

Blake Wehunt: “His best pitch is a splitter. I think that he’s one of the few pitchers who trusts everybody behind him,” Rosario said. “Infield, outfield also trusts the catcher. He’s able to throw a changeup if needed. I know that he didn’t have the best season last year, but I think he did a pretty good job attacking batters and being able to trust everybody behind him and the catcher. So I think he’ll have a better year this year.”