Chuck Edwards

Congressman Chuck Edwards has dropped out of his bid for re-election, leaving his party with the task of selecting a replacement to take on Democrats in what appears to be an increasingly tough contest for the GOP.

The North Carolina Republican made the decision after the House Ethics Committee recommended he be censured for inappropriate conduct toward female staffers. The committee found no evidence Edwards engaged in sexual activity with the woman or explicitly propositioned any employee, though its investigation detailed inappropriate comments and expensive gifts, including jewelry, designer purses, guns and vacations.

Edwards has denied wrongdoing and will serve out the remainder of his term, set to end on January 3.

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“After much prayer and reflection, I’ve decided to withdraw from my re-election campaign,” Edwards posted to X. “I will complete my current term. Serving Western North Carolina has been the honor of my life.”

Who Are Edwards’ Potential Replacements?

According to local reports, five names have emerged as possible replacements for Edwards, one of whom will take on Democrat Jamie Ager come November.

Jennifer Balkcom

Jennifer Balkcom is a member of the North Carolina House of Representatives and has held her District 117 seat since early 2023. She announced on Sunday that she would be entering the race.

“This race is too important to sit out,” she wrote on X. “We must hold this seat, preserve our mountain values, work with President Trump’s administration to continue rebuilding Western North Carolina, and make sure Washington never forgets the people who call these mountains home.”

Ken McKim

Ken McKim is a prolific figure in North Carolina Republican politics, having run for the state senate in 2006 and launched a congressional bid in 2021, according to ABC13 News.

In a 2021 profile in Hendersonville Lightning, McKim described his platform as one of “true conservatism, seeing that our nation’s founding documents and laws are adhered to, protecting individual liberties, controlling government spending and lowering taxes.”

Matthew Burril

Matthew Burril is an investment manager and financial professional, whose experience also includes an unsuccessful run for North Carolina’s 11th congressional district in 2022.

Kristie Sluder

Kristie Sluder ran for election to the North Carolina State Senate in 2024, but was defeated by the Democratic candidate, Julie Mayfield, who secured 69 percent of the vote per Ballotpedia.

Her campaign website listed increasing the supply of affordable housing, protecting “individual rights” and “rebuild[ing] the nuclear family” among her key aims.

Chad Nesbitt

Chad Nesbitt is a businessman, independent journalist and founder of Skyline News, an Asheville-based media company.

Nesbitt announced his intention to run in a video posted to Facebook, and said he was "asked by three committee members" whether he would consider running to replace Edwards on the ballot.

Newsweek has attempted to contact the candidates via past campaign emails, current business emails or social media accounts.

Who is Favored in the Race?

On Monday, the North Carolina Republican party will host a meeting to discuss Edwards’ replacement—a decision that will be made by the party’s executive committee for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District.

Nominations will be made during Monday evening’s meeting, and candidates must secure over 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff with the two most popular candidates.

President Donald Trump carried Edwards’ district—NC-11—by 10 points in 2024 and has not elected a Democrat since 2010, but polls suggest that Republicans could struggle to retain the House seat.

Probabilistic forecasting from VoteHub.com has Ager “narrowly favored” over the eventual nominee with a 62 percent chance of victory and an estimated vote share of 51 percent as of Monday afternoon.

Bettors on Polymarket, meanwhile, give the Democrats a 57 percent chance of victory—odds that shot up to 66 percent following the ethics committee investigation and remain higher than before Edwards’ withdrawal.

And some experts consider the seat a bellwether of how competitive this year’s midterms prove to be.

“Democrats do not need to win NC-11 to have a successful midterm and take over the U.S. House of Representatives,” Christopher Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University, wrote in June. “But if they are competitive there, or if Ager actually flips the seat, it will likely mean that the national environment has moved well beyond an ordinary midterm and into wave territory.”