Cindy Hyde-Smith

MSGOP Chairman Mike Hurst (Photo from Facebook)

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Mississippi’s razor-thin U.S. Senate contest between Democratic challenger Scott Colom and Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith has placed a spotlight on thousands of affidavit ballots.

With fewer than 2,000 votes separating the pair and wide-ranging estimates of 12,000 to 18,000 outstanding affidavit ballots, those votes could ultimately determine who represents Mississippi in the United States Senate.

Affidavit ballots, sometimes called provisional ballots, should not be confused with absentee ballots. Absentee ballots are cast when a person cannot vote in person on Election Day. Affidavit ballots are provisional votes cast at the polls when a voter’s registration or identification cannot immediately be verified.

This can occur when a voter does not appear on the precinct’s active voter rolls, when there is a question about the voter’s registration or precinct, or when a voter fails to present an acceptable photo ID.

The ballots are set aside until election officials can verify whether the person was legally entitled to vote and whether the ballot satisfies the requirements for counting.

In a race this close, the outstanding affidavit ballots could theoretically change the outcome. But not every affidavit ballot will necessarily be counted. The number ultimately accepted, along with how those voters divided between the candidates, remains unknown.

Mississippians who cast an affidavit ballot on Tuesday should not assume their vote has been counted. Nor should they assume it has been rejected.

Voters can check the status of their affidavit ballot through the Mississippi Secretary of State’s online voter portal here.

Some voters have reported checking the Secretary of State’s website only to discover that their affidavit ballots were listed as not accepted.

That designation should not automatically be interpreted as a final rejection. County election officials may still be reviewing the ballots and determining which are eligible to be counted.

Under Mississippi law, county election officials have until November 13 to certify the election. The affidavit review process takes place as part of that broader canvassing and certification process.

The state’s official affidavit-ballot instructions advise voters to wait 10 days before inquiring about whether their ballot was counted. If, however, voters check the affidavit portal linked above and find their ballots have not been accepted, they may want to inquire with either their county circuit clerk or county election commission to determine if the county has concluded its approval process. Voters can find the contact information for both by county here.

There is an especially important and more immediate deadline for voters who cast an affidavit ballot because they did not have an acceptable photo ID.

Under Mississippi Code § 23-15-563, those voters have five business days following the election to present acceptable identification at their county circuit clerk’s office or complete another legally authorized identification procedure.

For Tuesday’s election, that deadline is Tuesday, November 10, at the close of business.

At a press conference on Thursday, Republican Party Chairman Mike Hurst acknowledged a considerable uptick in affidavit ballots in this election compared to previous midterm cycles. Hurst told reporters that the MSGOP was evaluating its legal options and wanted to ensure that every ballot was counted in accordance with the law.

Hurst directed further questions about the glut of affidavits to Secretary of State Michael Watson. Even before the press conference, some political operatives and commentators had raised questions about whether the increase could be attributed to new systems applied to Mississippi’s voter roll maintenance efforts — specifically whether data acquired from Experian to aid county election commissioners in determining voter eligibility might have triggered registered voters being labeled inactive inaccurately. It is of note that the state has actually switched to another data platform since it first announced a contract with Experian in 2025.

Secretary of State Michael Watson told Magnolia Tribune, “there were roughly 21,000 in 2024, so I’m not sure there is a ‘ major increase.’ We don’t know the total number yet, and won’t until the counties process each one and upload their results into SEMS.”

The discrepancy in statements between Hurst and Watson might be attributable to the distinction between a midterm and presidential election. A presidential election, like the one that occurred in 2024, typically draws 300,000-350,000 more total voters than a midterm election like the one we just had.

Secretary Watson also addressed the potential of bad data, “The state did move to commercial data for voter roll maintenance and I’ve seen some folks saying it was bad data. Was some of the data off? Perhaps. Are election commissioners, by law, supposed to verify the information before making changes to a voter’s file in SEMS? Yes.

The best thing is, the affidavit ballot is a safety net in case any mistakes were made. That is how the system is designed. While the process may take a little more time than people might like, it is working and we will have cleaner voter rolls because of it.”

It is important to acknowledge that at this stage, theories on the cause of the volume of affidavits are, in fact, speculative. We do not know the precise number of affidavits cast or whether they resulted from voters being moved to inactive status or some other cause (no ID/appearing at the wrong precinct). Nor do we know if those moved to inactive status resulted from recently implemented tools.

There’s also been a lot of misinformation and missing nuance in discussions of Mississippi’s voter integrity efforts.

The National Voter Registration Act of 1993, commonly known as the Motor Voter Act, imposes an affirmative obligation on states to make reasonable efforts to identify and remove voters who are no longer eligible because they have died or changed residences.

Specifically, 52 U.S.C. § 20507(a)(4) requires each state to:

“conduct a general program that makes a reasonable effort to remove the names of ineligible voters from the official lists of eligible voters.”

The statute specifically identifies the death of a registrant and a change in residence as grounds for removal.

At the same time, Congress recognized the danger of mistakenly removing eligible voters and established safeguards governing how states conduct maintenance programs.

The law prohibits removing someone from the voter rolls solely because the person has not voted. It permits removal or “purging” through the statutory notice-and-wait process when a voter fails to respond to a confirmation notice and does not vote or appear to vote in two consecutive federal general elections.

The law expressly permits states to use National Change of Address information from the United States Postal Service to identify voters who may have moved.

In 2023, the Mississippi Legislature passed House Bill 1310, creating Mississippi Code § 23-15-152. The law took effect January 1, 2024.

The statute established specific procedures for identifying voters whose registration information may no longer be accurate.

Under the law, county election commissioners are required to send confirmation notices to voters when certain conditions arise.

Those include: when United States Postal Service change-of-address information indicates a voter may have moved; when another state reports that a voter has registered there; when a voter has failed to vote or update registration information over the presidential-election-cycle period specified by the statute; or when election officials receive reliable information indicating that a voter has changed residence.

The confirmation notice must be sent by forwardable mail, with return postage prepaid, using a form