Cory Mills

Cory Mills is just the latest in a string of incumbents to be ousted from Congress in a primary battle this year, but his defeat could serve as a particular warning sign for embattled Representative Max Miller.

The race in Florida’s 7th Congressional District was a test of whether a scandal-plagued House Republican could survive a primary with the backing of President Donald Trump.

For Mills, the answer was no.

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He lost the Republican nomination to former television journalist Ryan Elijah after being hammered over multiple investigations he is facing, including an ongoing House Ethics Committee probe into allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations. The Department of Justice is also investigating his finances. Mills has denied wrongdoing.

Miller, also endorsed by Trump, is already the Republican nominee for Ohio's 7th Congressional District and refused to get out of the race before a deadline passed for him to be replaced on the Ohio ballot.

He had faced calls to drop out over domestic abuse allegations in a bitter and drawn-out custody battle with his ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno. Earlier in August, the House Ethics Committee said it had opened an investigation into the allegations against Miller, which he has repeatedly denied.

Now, Mills’ ousting should ring alarm bells for Republicans who have been increasingly nervous about Miller’s electability and worried that he could cost the party a seat as they try to cling to their House majority in November’s midterms.

Newsweek has contacted Miller’s campaign for comment via email.

A Bad Omen For Republicans

The circumstances in the Florida and Ohio races are not identical.

Mills was facing a Republican primary challenger, while Miller has just over two months before facing Democrat Brian Poindexter in the general election.

But Mills' loss offers a cautionary lesson.

Republican voters may be loyal, but the result in Tuesday’s primary suggests there is a point where Trump’s endorsement is not enough to save a candidate plagued by controversy.

The key question is whether Ohio voters, particularly Republicans, will reach a similar conclusion and reject Miller.

Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, said the outcome in Florida shows voters are taking allegations against politicians seriously.

They are “willing to hold politicians to account,” he told Newsweek. "The circumstances in each case differ, but the Mills result in Florida does not portend well for Miller in Ohio.”

Panagopoulos also said that the allegations against Miller could affect more than just the race in Ohio, adding: “Often, these things tend to cascade or snowball into a larger narrative whose impact spills over into multiple races.”

The Trump Factor

Trump’s endorsement has propelled most Republican candidates to secure victories in GOP primaries, but his record has suffered some setbacks.

On Wednesday, he took to Truth Social to say he had urged Mills to exit the race as he endorsed Elijah.

“I told Congressman Cory Mills of Florida, a friend of mine, to get out of the Race, but he wouldn’t listen. He thought he could win, so who can blame him?” Trump wrote. “We now have a great candidate, Ryan Elijah, running in his place! Ryan stands for EVERYTHING MAGA, and is respected by ALL. He has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

Trump appears to have similar concerns about Miller. In an interview on CNN earlier in August, Miller said he had spoken about his reelection prospects with the president.

Miller said the president told him, “I don’t know if you’re going to be able to, you know, pull this one out.”

According to Politico, White House officials told Ohio Republicans not to pressure Miller to drop out. The officials argued that it would complicate messaging since Miller was determined to remain in the race and Republicans would likely have to defend him against a Democratic opponent.

What The Polls Suggest

Polling conducted ahead of the Tuesday's primary in Florida had suggested the scandals would doom Mills’ bid for reelection.

A Capital Strategic Partners survey, conducted between August 14 and 15, found 54 percent of likely Republican voters believed it was "time for a new person" to represent the district, while only 26 percent said Mills deserved reelection. The same survey showed Elijah leading Mills by 17 points, 44 percent to 27 percent.

It was even worse for Mills when voters were reminded that he has faced a congressional ethics investigation, a widely reported assault allegation, and scrutiny over his business dealings. The survey found that after knowing this, Elijah led Mills, 48 percent to 20 percent.

Polling in Miller’s race also suggests the allegations against him could cost him his seat.

A co/efficient polling memo said polling conducted between August 5 and 6 found Democrat Brian Poindexter was leading Miller by 14 points. A poll conducted an earlier had Poindexter with a five-point lead.

The memo said that 86 percent of respondents were aware of the allegations against Miller, up 33 percent from the week prior. It also noted that voters were 48 percent less likely to support Miller based on what they seen, read or heard about Miller, with Republicans 37 percent less likely to support him.

One of the clearest warning signs for Miller came earlier this month when the Cook Political Report moved Ohio's 7th District from "Likely Republican" to "Toss Up”—a significant shift in a district that Trump carried by 11 points in the 2024 election.