Dan Sullivan

The chances of two Dan Sullivans appearing in the final four of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race have risen after the state Supreme Court ruled that a same-named challenger to Republican Senator Dan Sullivan can remain on the primary ballot.

Prediction market Kalshi currently gives incumbent Dan S. Sullivan a 93 percent chance of advancing from Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary, while Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service employee from Petersburg, is listed as the fourth favorite at 46 percent. His odds have dipped 11 points recently, according to the market, but remain high enough to put him ahead of several other candidates seeking one of the four general election slots. Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola is listed at 94 percent, while Dustin Darden is at 57 percent.

The market movement follows a fast-moving legal fight over whether Dan J. Sullivan should be allowed to run at all. The Alaska Supreme Court on Monday ordered the Alaska Division of Elections to include him on the primary ballot, affirming a lower-court ruling that found the state had acted unlawfully in disqualifying him. The court said the division must list him "within the confines of existing ballot design law," while a fuller opinion is expected later.

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How Did the Dan Sullivan Ballot Dispute Begin?

The saga began when Dan J. Sullivan filed to run shortly before the June 1 deadline, setting up the unusual possibility of two Republican Dan Sullivans appearing on the same ballot. Under Alaska’s election system, all candidates run in a single nonpartisan primary, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked-choice general election in November.

The filing quickly drew criticism from the incumbent and national Republican groups, who argued the challenger’s candidacy could confuse voters and potentially help Peltola, the Democrat widely seen as Sullivan’s main opponent. The incumbent has accused the challenger of being a "sham candidate," while the National Republican Senatorial Committee has alleged that Democratic-linked operatives helped launch the campaign. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement, and Dan J. Sullivan has said his candidacy is genuine.

Why Was Dan J. Sullivan Removed From the Ballot?

On June 15, Alaska Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher removed Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot, concluding that his candidacy was not filed in "good faith" and was instead intended to "confuse or mislead" voters. Among the issues cited were his initial use of "Dan Sullivan," his Republican affiliation, similarities between his campaign materials and the incumbent’s branding, and his links to a political consultant with Democratic clients.

Dan J. Sullivan sued, arguing that Alaska officials had no authority to judge his motives if he met the constitutional qualifications to run for the Senate. His attorneys said the Constitution sets out three requirements for senators: being at least 30 years old, a U.S. citizen for at least nine years, and an inhabitant of the state when elected.

Superior Court Judge Thomas Matthews agreed, ruling Friday that the elections division had effectively created a new, "previously unstated" good-faith test not found in the Constitution, Alaska law or the division’s regulations. Matthews wrote that the state could use ballot design tools to reduce confusion, but could not remove a legally qualified candidate from the ballot because of alleged intent.

What Did the Alaska Supreme Court Decide?

The state appealed, but the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Matthews’ decision after expedited arguments on Monday, just ahead of the deadline to certify and print ballots. During arguments, justices reportedly pressed the state on why it had chosen removal rather than less drastic options such as listing middle initials or otherwise differentiating the candidates. Chief Justice Susan Carney described removal as "the most extreme remedy possible," according to Alaska Public Media.

Dan J. Sullivan has said he is willing to appear on the ballot with his middle initial and has denied that he entered the race to mislead voters. "It’s all because of my name, and you know, there’s nothing I can do about my name," he told the Alaska Beacon after the ruling.

Why National Republicans Are Worried

The dispute has drawn national attention because Alaska could be one of the more competitive Senate races of the midterms. Sullivan is seeking a third term in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024, but Peltola has previously won statewide under Alaska’s ranked-choice system and Democrats are targeting the seat as part of their effort to regain control of the Senate.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday found Dan S. Sullivan leading Peltola by just 2 percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent, while other recent surveys have shown Peltola with narrow leads. Despite Alaska's Republican lean and Sullivan's history of winning statewide, polling averages place the two candidates roughly even.

The race is rated as a tossup by prominent election forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Alaska Voters Have Navigated Unusual Ballots Before

The argument that voters will be unable to distinguish between Dan S. Sullivan and Dan J. Sullivan may run up against Alaska's recent electoral history.

In 2010, incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski mounted one of the most successful write-in campaigns in modern American politics after losing the Republican primary to Tea Party-backed challenger Joe Miller. Voters were required to write Murkowski's name on their ballots, yet she ultimately won the general election and returned to the Senate.

The race became a national test of whether voters could successfully navigate an unusually complicated ballot. Election officials ultimately counted ballots that included minor misspellings and variations of Murkowski's name, provided voter intent was clear.

Could Both Dan Sullivans Advance to November's Election?

The immediate question now is how much voter confusion, if any, results from two Dan Sullivans sharing the ballot—and whether both can survive the top-four primary. The prediction market odds suggest traders see that outcome as plausible, if far from certain. For now, Alaska voters may be asked to choose not only between Sullivan and Peltola, but between Sullivan and Sullivan.

Republicans, meanwhile, might be hoping that former Anchorage Mayor Dan A. Sullivan doesn't launch a write-in campaign.