Dan Sullivan

Republican Senator Dan Sullivan narrowly trailed Democrat Mary Peltola in the latest poll of the Alaska Senate race, a crucial battleground, released on Tuesday.

Democrats are hoping to reclaim control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the November midterms. But they face an uphill battle to win a majority in Congress’ upper chamber, with a difficult map offering limited clear pickup options. This means they must turn to more conservative states that backed President Donald Trump by double digits, including Alaska.

Peltola, who represented the state’s at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, is viewed as a top recruit to take on Sullivan, who entered office in 2015. Democrats believe the race could be competitive in a favorable national environment driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating.

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Alaska uses ranked choice voting, in which voters rank their preferred candidates. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated. This continues until a candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.

The new poll from Alaska Survey Research showed Peltola with a lead well within the margin of error. Peltola’s support stood at 50.8 percent compared to Sullivan’s 49.2 percent in the new poll of the final round of ranked choice.

It surveyed 1,371 likely voters from August 2-5, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

For comparison, a March poll from Alaska Survey Research of the final round of ranked-choice voting showed Peltola up by more than 4 points, 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent. An April release from the pollster showed her winning with 50.2 percent, compared to Sullivan’s 43.6 percent and Republican James Ryan’s 6.2 percent.

Ivan Moore, the founder of the poll, wrote in a post to Bluesky, “Despite millions of dollars being dropped to change voter opinion in Alaska, vote opinion isn't really changing.”

A Peltola spokesperson told Newsweek on Tuesday, "With more than 10,000 Alaska volunteers signed up to help the campaign, and after receiving record breaking grassroots support from every corner of the state, it’s clear that Alaskans are ready to fire self-serving Dan Sullivan and elect Mary to put Alaska first in the Senate."

Newsweek also reached out to Sullivan's campaign for comment via email.

What Do Other Polls and Forecasts Show?

Another recent poll from The New York Times and Siena University showed Sullivan with a 2-point lead in the initial round of ranked choice. He received support from 47 percent of respondents compared to Peltola’s 45 percent. Five percent were undecided while 2 percent said they would vote for other candidates.

It surveyed 593 likely voters from June 15-29, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.

Forecasters view it as one of the most competitive races; both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as a pure toss-up where neither party has a clear advantage.

In June, Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman pointed to Peltola’s close race in 2024, where she lost by fewer than 3 points as Trump won the state by 13 points, as to why it is a toss-up. They wrote that it seems “plausible” she would have a reasonable chance to win in a better environment for Democrats, given such an overperformance two years earlier.

Alaska Is Historically Republican, But Democrats See Opportunity

Alaska is historically seen as having a strong Republican lean, but it has become a top target for Democrats this year due to Peltola’s candidacy and a belief that it is inching toward becoming more competitive.

Trump’s 13-point victory in Alaska followed his 10-point victory in 2020, which marked a notable shift over recent elections. In 2016, Trump won the state by nearly 15 points. Republicans also won Alaska by 14 points in 2012, nearly 22 points in 2008, 26 points in 2004 and 31 points in 2000.

As cities like Anchorage shift from a Republican stronghold to more purple, the GOP's margins have shrunk over recent election cycles. Alaska has also had an independent streak despite its reputation as a reliably Republican state; its state Senate has a majority coalition made up of Democrats and moderate Republicans, and it has elected Democrats statewide before, Peltola being the most recent.

Even as the state voted Republican on the presidential level in 2008, it also backed Democrat Mark Begich that same year in the Senate race, though he would go on to lose to Sullivan six years later in 2014. That was the last time Alaska elected a Democratic senator.

Alaska Could Be Senate Tipping Point

A victory in Alaska could deliver Democrats a Senate majority in November, making it a potential tipping-point state.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. Democrats are defending two seats in Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan. They are targeting North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points, as top targets.

If Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority.

There are no other GOP-held seats up for grabs in states Trump won by single-digits or outright lost in 2024. This means Democrats must target more traditionally conservative states, including Alaska, to build a majority. Democrats are also contesting Republican-held seats in states like Iowa, Ohio and Texas as polls show competitive races in those states.

What's Next: Alaska Senate Race