Dan Sullivan

Democrats have received some unlikely good news that challenger Mary Peltola maintains a lead against incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican, after six months of polling.

The most recent data revealed by Alaska Survey Research (ASR) found that Peltola has 52.4 percent support from respondents when undecided voters are removed from the equation, maintaining her majority lead from the October and January polls; this is a nearly five-point advantage over Sullivan, who has 47.6 percent support.

Why It Matters

Historically, the ruling party suffer significant losses if they also control the White House during the sitting president's first midterm election. Republicans have a slim majority in Congress with 217 seats to the Democrats' 214, marking a sharp warning for a party that came out of the 2024 election on a high, having secured the White House and both chambers of Congress.

Already, 36 sitting Republican representatives have declared their intent not to seek reelection in the upcoming midterms, marking the highest turnover for GOP lawmakers in the House over the past 100 years - which makes it essential that the party focus its efforts on retaining the already thin majority.

However, Democrats have also been hopeful about their chances of winning control of the Senateas polls show them with a fighting chance in races where Republicans have been favored. The GOP currently holds a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the chamber—or three seats for a tie, though the vice president would serve as the tiebreaker.

What To Know

Alaska, typically viewed as a Republican-leaning state, is among the Democrats’ top targets. It backed Trump by 14 points in 2024, but the candidacy of Peltola, who held the state’s at-large congressional district as representative from 2022 to 2025, has boosted Democrats’ hopes they can unseat Sullivan.

A range of pollsters in October and January found that Peltola held a small lead over Sullivan: ASR polling in October and January each found Peltola holding a lead of one to two points over Sullivan, while the Tyson Group in November found Peltola holding a four-point lead and Public Policy Polling in January also found Peltola holding a 2 point lead. In all cases, Peltola's lead is in the high 40s, usually around 48 percent as around five to six percent of respondents remain undecided.

New polling data from ASR, posted on Bluesky, found that trend has continued into March: Peltola has 48.8 percent support compared to Sullivan's 43.5. The Alaska vote will this year use ranked choice voting (RCV) for the first time, which was approved in 2020 and therefore did not apply to Sullivan's election in that same year.

ASR polling also accounted for removing undecideds, which would occur as part of the ranked-choice process: The polling found Peltola holding a majority support: In October, she led Sullivan 51 to 49 percent, while in January she led him 50.8 to 49.2. The March data shows her holding her largest lead yet at 52.4 to 47.6 - a nearly five-point lead over the incumbent.

However, that comparison is virtually unnecessary as it represents a third round of ranked choice voting: In the simulation, Peltola wins on the second round with 50.4 percent of the vote to Sullivan's 43.8 percent.

"Comparisons with past surveys are difficult because we're using RCV on this race for the first time," the pollster noted. "Prior surveys simply measured a head-to-head, including an undecided option. The results ... show the results in October and January with the undecided factored out, compared with this RCV measure."

ASR also found that Peltola has a favorability rating of 49 percent - marking a three-point increase over January's polling - and 41 percent (unchanged) unfavorable compared to Sullivan's 41 percent favorability - an increase of two points) compared to 51 percent unfavorable.

The latest poll was conducted between March 19 and 22, asking 1590 Alaska adults aged 18 or older, including 1,512 registered voters, 1,283 of which intend to vote in the primaries in August. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 to three percent, and the poll was conducted by text-to-online means.