Darline Graham

Just six weeks ago, Darline Graham was known to politically tuned-in South Carolinians as the adored younger sister of veteran U.S. senator Lindsey Graham, holding down a low-profile if worthy state office as an advocate for services for the blind. Then Lindsey Graham suddenly died and Darline began occupying her brother’s Senate seat, initially as a caretaker but now as a candidate for a full term (Lindsey had recently won renomination for a fifth term). Despite quickly earning the backing of Donald Trump, Graham did not chase off opponents at all. But she did finish first in an August 11 special Republican primary, winning about a third of the vote against a large field that included two U.S. House members and a former governor. (Democrats had already chosen their November Senate candidate, pediatrician Annie Andrews.)

Now Graham is in a rare late-August runoff against one of those congressmen, Ralph Norman, a old-school hard-core conservative prominent in the House Freedom Caucus, in a contest that is also a test of the strength of Trump and his closest South Carolina allies (including that other U.S. senator, Tim Scott; two-term governor Henry McMaster, and the congressman who finished third in the primary, Russell Fry). Norman has won the backing of former senator Jim DeMint, former governors Nikki Haley and Mark Sanford, and out-of-state right-wingers Mike Lee and Rick Scott.

From the perspective of D.C. insiders and Norman fans, the runoff contest has been defined by a single moment in the candidates’ August 18 debate, as described by Politico:

Asked whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are relevant national security priorities, Graham responded: “I’m just going to be honest here … I’m not that informed on national security, so.” She added that “national security is not my thing, not my area of expertise, but I do support the military. …”

Her response spread like wildfire on social media, with critics saying it proves she is “unprepared” to take office.

This take quickly spread throughout the Beltway echo chamber, where pundits expressed horror at Graham’s ignorance, which they treated as a virtual profanation of her brother’s memory. The reaction was also taken up, of course, by Norman’s partisans in South Carolina, such as Nikki Haley:

It’s worth noting that Norman endorsed Haley over Trump for president in 2024, which likely reinforced Trump’s decision to back Graham. And even as D.C. gabbers all but wrote off Graham as self-disqualified, the 47th president intervened personally in the runoff, holding a rally in her support in Myrtle Beach on August 21, along with Fry (who represents that city in Congress), Scott, and McMaster. Trump disparagers, noting his recently ragged record of endorsees losing a significant number of Republican primaries, have piled on to the Graham criticism, hoping she’d prove to be another presidential black eye (so far his candidates haven’t lost any Senate primaries, so this could be a first).

Is this realistic? The Bulwark’s Andrew Eggar is skeptical:

It’s Darline Graham’s contention that GOP voters don’t care about any of this. What they want their senators to be doing, she argues, is chasing a bunch of right-wing culture-war shibboleths: beating their heads against the wall of the DOA Save America Act, rabble-rousing about the elevenish male trans athletes a year who want to play in girls’ and women’s athletics. The Serious Men of the Senate flatter themselves that their job is more serious and important than this. But I suspect Darline might know what time it is better than they do.

It’s not easy to figure out what’s actually happening on the ground. There has been just one public poll of the runoff, from the Trafalgar Group, which shows the two candidates tied. Apparently internal candidate polls and the conventional wisdom suggest a close race. Prediction markets favor Graham, but not overwhelmingly. Figuring out the shape of the electorate is problematic, too: This is a rare late-summer standalone primary election in a place where it’s hot as blazes right now with kids adjusting to a new school year. About 10 percent of the state’s registered voters showed up for the August 11 primary; turnout on August 25 is likely to be lower. Will the bulk of voters be GOP ideologues favorable to Norman or MAGA folk willing to do whatever the boss tells them to do? Nobody is all that sure.

Team Graham has significantly outspent Team Norman, according to the Charleston Post and Courier:

A dizzying amount of money has been spent in the days since Graham and Norman advanced from the Aug. 11 primary to face one another in this month’s runoff. Most of it has been spent against Norman.

Of the total $3.2 million in advertisements booked for the final week of the campaign, Norman’s campaign was being outspent by Graham and her allied political action committees by a rate of two-to-one, adding to an already lopsided assault from his establishment-aligned opponent.

There has also been some visible advocacy-group skirmishing, most notably among anti-abortion militants. The big machers of anti-abortion politics, National Right to Life and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, have endorsed Graham, while the more uncompromising Students for Life group has backed Norman (citing a campaign contribution Graham made to a Republican legislator who helped block a total abortion ban in the state).

In a low-turnout runoff, geography could also be a factor. Norman’s electoral base has been in the northwest and north-central parts of the state, which tend to generate heavy GOP voting. Graham lives in the Columbia suburbs, and she did best in the primaries in that Midlands region and in the southern coastal Low Country area. It’s no accident that Trump’s big rally was in Fry’s northern coastal base; his vote could be a crucial prize in the runoff.

Norman is a lame-duck member of the House after finishing third in the gubernatorial primary back in June; Graham’s interim Senate gig ends at year’s end too. So somebody’s political career — Norman’s stretches back to 2004, and Graham’s is spanking new — is going to take a turn for the worse on August 25, and returns are expected to tell the tale quickly.