Darrell Issa

The California measure was expected to net Democrats five seats, with the long-sought Central Valley district held by Rep. David Valadao considered the big prize and the 48th, represented by Issa, widely viewed as a bonus.

But the calculus has suddenly changed on both sides of the equation. A string of Republican victories in the gerrymandering wars, including at the Supreme Court on Friday, has now made every California seat critical to Democratic hopes of retaking the House — and the 48th is looking less certain amid a crowded primary and a stronger-than-expected GOP candidate.

“There’s no margin for error this cycle,” said Ammar Campa-Najjar, one of the leading Democratic candidates in the district, which straddles San Diego and Riverside counties.

The Supreme Court decision to weaken the Voting Rights Act and the rejection of a new Democratic electoral map in Virginia have raised the stakes and “gotten people more focused,” he said.

As one of his opponents, Marni von Wilpert, another leading Democrat in the race, put it: “This is not an easy race for a Democrat by any means.”

From red to blue-ish

California’s 48th is one of two challenging pickups for Democrats in a state they otherwise dominate. The national party has placed the other one, the redrawn Central Valley seat held by Valadao, on its “red to blue” list of spending priorities.

But it has held off in the Issa district amid a contentious Democratic primary that ends June 2.

Proposition 50 reconfigured the 48th to add Democrats from the suburbs of San Diego and from around Palm Springs to lighten a deep red district that Issa won by about 20 percentage points in the last two elections. Now, the Democratic voter registration edge is about 4 percentage points, but the area can be fickle: Kamala Harris won these voters in 2024 with 52 percent of the vote; Newsom lost in 2022 with 48 percent.

“It’s still ambitious to say it’s purple,” said Stephen Shrewsbury, president of the Democratic Club of Fallbrook, a San Diego County community that’s partially in the 48th district and is known as the Avocado Capital of the World.

The district, which stretches south through the Anza-Borrego Desert nearly to the Mexican border, is about 40 percent Hispanic, and candidates, both for Congress and other races, say the aggressive enforcement by Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Trump is a major issue with voters — along with gas prices and the Iran war. “No Kings” rallies in the area have drawn large crowds since Trump returned to office.

“There’s a lot of enthusiasm,” said Nanci Oechsle, the treasurer of the Vista Democratic Club.

Fighting to get to the second round

Issa, a divisive figure and loyal Trump ally, presumably sensed that enthusiasm when he opted in March to announce his retirement.

But Republicans found a credible contender, with Issa’s retirement opening the door to Jim Desmond, a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors and former mayor of San Marcos, a small city within the boundaries of the new 48th district. While Democrats are embroiled in a primary battle, Desmond has both name recognition and the support of the national party as the leading Republican in the race.

Democrats were quick to pounce on Desmond, who did not respond to a request for comment, after he received an endorsement from Trump and, in a recent interview with a far-right news channel, seemed to dismiss the spike in gas prices by saying “no pain no gain” as he defended the Iran war. Still, he’s considered a formidable opponent.

“It’s not going to be a sho0-in for the Democrat who makes it through the primary because MAGA Republican Jim Desmond is a household name around here,” von Wilpert said. “And I call him MAGA Republican because he did just warmly accept the full endorsement of Donald Trump.”

Von Wilpert, a member of the San Diego City Council who previously worked for the city attorney, argues she’s the strongest Democrat in the race because of her government record and political experience flipping a council seat that had been held by a Republican. She’s picked up the backing of many of the Democratic clubs in the district and notables such as former Sen. Barbara Boxer but fell just short of the 60 percent of delegates needed to win the state party endorsement.

Campa-Najjar also has a long list of endorsements, including many members of the California congressional delegation, and touts his service as an officer in the Navy reserve in a district with large numbers of veterans. He ran unsuccessfully for Congress twice before, including against Issa in 2020, and for mayor of Chula Vista, and has faced criticism for reversing policy stances he took while courting more conservative voters.

“There’s a fight between different factions of our party about this, and I think it’s pretty clear who is on my side, but I do think we’re all united in this effort to make sure that we advance the best candidate to flip this seat,” he said.

Public polling on the race is scarce. But internal measures suggest it is close. A recent internal poll from the von Wilpert campaign shows her leading Campa-Najjar, though within the margin of error among all voters, followed by Brandon Riker, a Palm Springs economist who ran for lieutenant governor of Vermont in 2016. Other Democrats include Corinna Contreras, a member of the Vista City Council who has been endorsed by that city’s Democratic Club.

“This district was drawn to flip and to win when we thought it was just Texas we were fighting back against,” said von Wilpert. “This is a huge priority for the Democratic Party, not only in California, but nationally.”

Mail-in ballots have already gone out in California and are already being processed. And while Democrats are anxious here about their prospects, the redrawn district has, at a minimum, improved them. They welcome the attention in an area where before Proposition 50 many felt ignored.

“I have lived in Escondido so long and never had the representation I wanted in Congress,” said Pam Albergo, a retiree who attended a May Day demonstration in the city. “I will definitely support whoever the Democrat is. I would like to finally have my voice being really heard in Washington.”