David Schweikert

Karrin Taylor Robson's exit from the Arizona governor's race leaves a two-person Republican primary between congressmen Andy Biggs and David Schweikert.

Biggs is considered the frontrunner, but both campaigns are now competing for the donors who previously supported Taylor Robson.

The eventual Republican nominee will face incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs, who holds a significant fundraising advantage.

The race for the Republican nomination for Arizona governor is now a competition between congressmen, and one thing to watch will be how they divide former candidate Karrin Taylor Robson's donors.

Taylor Robson's bombshell announcement Feb. 12 that she was suspending her campaign could shake up the money race. Congressman Andy Biggs has more than double Rep. David Schweikert's total fundraising, but new sources of financial support could narrow those standings while the primary election is still five months out.

Schweikert's campaign projected confidence about his continued fundraising. Proof was that the campaign was coming up on $550,000 in advertising buys, according to Schweikert's consultant Chris Baker.

"Donors now have a choice between two conservative members of Congress, one of whom has a record of constantly winning under tough circumstances," Baker said. "The other one does not."

Schweikert has represented the northeast Valley in Congress since 2011, holding the seat in a district that has become one of the most competitive on the map in recent cycles. Biggs was elected in 2016 to represent the southeast Valley, a reliably red district.

“It has always been our campaign's intention to win over every Republican, whether they be a voter, whether they be an elected official, a donor," said Drew Sexton, Biggs' adviser and campaign spokesperson. "We want all Republicans united behind our campaign.”

Schweikert saw a big boost after moving $572,000 from his federal political committee into his state accounts late last year. That is the majority of his $872,000 income reported as of Dec. 31, state campaign finance reports show.

The move has generated campaign finance complaints with an allegation that funds raised by a candidate for federal office — like Congress — can't be transferred to benefit the same candidate in a state race. Arizona law is not explicit on the issue.

Baker dismissed the complaints as a political tactic.

“We remain completely confident that our position ... is completely allowable under Arizona law, and our attorneys agree," he said. The woman who filed the complaints, Lisa Dearing of Chandler, did not respond to a message seeking comment. The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission confirmed it had received her complaint. The Arizona Secretary of State, which was also included on Dearing's letter, did not confirm receipt on Feb. 13.

Biggs has an interest in knowing if Schweikert's move passes muster. He had $374,000 in his federal account at the end of 2025, Federal Election Commission records show.

All public polls put Biggs ahead of Schweikert for the party's nomination, and analysts told The Arizona Republic that Biggs stood to benefit most from Taylor Robson's decision to drop out. Biggs, now the apparent frontrunner, also acknowledged his path to the nomination became a bit clearer.

"I'd be lying if I didn't say I was grateful that she's not running against me anymore," Biggs said on Feb. 13, after an unrelated hearing at the state Capitol in Phoenix. "But I wish her well, she has a great family, she is a great person. She's got a lot to offer to the state and she'll be offering it in the future."

Asked if he would consider Taylor Robson to be his choice for lieutenant governor, a position Arizonans will elect for the first time this year, Biggs wouldn't say. Taylor Robson's sudden departure from the race prompted immediate speculation among political insiders she had cut a deal to be the eventual GOP nominee's second in command.

"Look, I've had more than 50 people that have offered to be my lieutenant governor, and I'm flattered that so many are interested," Biggs told The Republic, "but we're not going to respond."

Sexton said the campaign found out Taylor Robson was leaving the race when she made her announcement on Feb. 12.

The Republican primary race has generated a notable share of early spending by outside groups to place advertisements and deliver messages to your mailbox as the candidates jostle to show they are best suited to oust Hobbs in November. That outside spending was largely driven by Turning Point PAC to amplify Biggs' campaign.

Hobbs way ahead with eyes on November

Whoever emerges from the GOP primary will need a significant war chest and help from outside groups to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs, the incumbent Democrat who has a fundraising advantage. Hobbs began stockpiling funds for her 2026 reelection in 2023, her first year in the Governor's Office — well before either Biggs or Schweikert had even signaled their interest.

The incumbent advantage, and the competitiveness of the seat, show in Hobbs' fundraising haul.

Occupying one of three governor's offices nationwide that Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics ranks as up for grabs by either party this year, Hobbs needs that campaign cash and more. Not included in her own campaign coffers is another nearly $1.7 million in the bank at her affiliated political action committee, Copper State Values.

In addition to total money raised from all sources, Hobbs has an advantage when looking at where Arizonans are contributing. She has raised millions more from state residents than her GOP competitors combined.

Hobbs is banking on her GOP rivals to spend down their accounts while vying for the party's nomination in late July — leaving them disadvantaged against her in the general election just over three months later. With Taylor Robson out, the primary could be less messy and less expensive, leaving the GOP nominee in a better position to challenge Hobbs.

The primary will be held in mid-July this year, after it was moved up from August because of deadline concerns.

There could be a general election surprise on the way this year. Arizona Independent Party candidate Hugh Lytle entered the race after the most recent reports were filed, so it is too soon to tell if his campaign will energize financial backers or siphon off a meaningful amount of money from a competitor — and if so, who that hurts or helps.