David Schweikert

Rep. David Schweikert has entered the Arizona governor's race, joining an already competitive GOP primary.

The crowded Republican primary could become expensive and contentious before the general election against Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.

Endorsements from figures like Donald Trump and the late Charlie Kirk could play a significant role in the primary dynamics.

David Schweikert's entrance into the Arizona governor's race has shaken up competition for the Republican nomination, with 10 months to go before the party's most active voters cast their ballots.

Schweikert, 63, confirmed he would run and ended months of speculation about his political plans. He joins two other high-profile Republicans already in the race: Land use consultant Karrin Taylor Robson, who is undertaking her second gubernatorial bid, and fellow Congressman Andy Biggs, R-Ariz.

Schweikert, who has represented Arizonans in Congress since 2011, said he was disillusioned with the effectiveness of the body and will try to carve a path to the Governor's Office that banks on his fiscal conservatism and policy chops.

Whether his pitch finds a sweet spot with Republican primary voters that can carry him to the general election might be an uphill battle. But jumping in changes dynamics in what was a two-way race already far from settled.

"It's a big question of how do primary voters split between the three," said Lorna Romero Ferguson, a Republican consultant.

Schweikert "is part of the conservative-leaning caucus in D.C. really focused on fiscal issues, which appeals to an element of the base, but is also business savvy and can speak to more moderate voters," she said.

The trio of Republicans are eyeing the chance to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs next November. Hobbs is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent governors in the nation, but has advantages including a clear path to the general election and no primary challenger in sight.

Both Taylor Robson and Biggs have received, and often highlight, the endorsement of President Donald Trump, which can be a boost to winning the GOP grassroots.

Schweikert has kept a lower profile when it comes to the controversial president and his policies, not to mention Trump's brash style of politics. But his votes on bills like Trump's funding and policy package may bring political baggage.

Schweikert, in a previous interview with The Arizona Republic, said his reelection wins in the competitive 1st Congressional District were proof positive of his ability to win over voters, and he said ultimately the GOP nomination for governor.

Where do GOP primary voters land?

A third candidate in the running adds uncertainty, according to former Arizona Republican Party chair and Trump campaign alumnus Jeff DeWit.

"When it was a two-way race it seemed somewhat straightforward to define which voters were in which camp," he said. "As a three-way race, all the calculations are out the window and every pollster and consultant is busy redoing their models to see which voters they now need to target."

Schweikert might appeal to a more traditional, fiscally conservative Republican voter upset by government deficits and the evolution of GOP politics under Trump, said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime GOP consultant who left the party in the Trump era.

"He has a logical path there, but it's not MAGA, and it's not Trump," Coughlin said. "It's another bygone era."

If his campaign gets traction, it could draw votes from Taylor Robson, who is running on a similar message, albeit with Trump's backing and the ability to put millions of her own into the race.

"If there's a lane where it affects somebody, it's going to mostly affect Karrin and her ability to get traditional conservative Republicans who are business oriented and are persuaded we need a Trump-endorsed candidate who is not crazy like Trump," Coughlin said.

Schweikert has portrayed himself as the Republican who can beat Hobbs. But that approach could backfire if the goal of a primary is to be viewed among the party's most faithful voters as the most conservative candidate.

"When you talk about your electability, you are by definition conceding that you are not the most conservative person in the primary," said Brian Seitchik, a Republican campaign consultant who worked for Trump's campaign. "An electability argument does not say, 'I'm the most conservative.'"

A three-way primary has potential to narrow the winning margin, and risks a repeat the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2022. Former Congressman Matt Salmon left the race and endorsed Taylor Robson, though he did so late enough his name still appeared on ballots. He ultimately siphoned off votes that left Taylor Robson the runner up behind the bombastic former television news anchor Kari Lake. Lake lost to Hobbs months later by about 17,000 votes, less than 1 percentage point.

That's where the mechanics of campaigning may prove crucial. Taylor Robson has signaled she will self-fund, giving her a financial advantage to build on her prior statewide campaign whereas Schweikert has only won in his district.

"He's got a lot of identification to make up, people just don't know him," said former Gov. Jan Brewer, a Republican who is a co-chair of Taylor Robson's campaign. She added about the race overall: "The more the merrier."

But both Biggs and Schweikert have long records on Capitol Hill and have pledged to tour the state, or already started tours, speaking to a bigger group of winnable voters.

"I think that ends up being key: Who is able to really get their name out there, and get their message out there to a broader audience when there's so much similarity amongst the candidates" on policy, Romero Ferguson said.

The impact of Charlie Kirk's endorsement

The day after Schweikert's announcement, Biggs' and Taylor Robson's campaigns rushed to highlight early polling that was favorable to their candidate — a reminder to voters and donors of their viability in the months ahead. They touted Trump's endorsement, but there was another high-profile conservative figure who may impact the race to come.

"As the only candidate with the endorsement of both President Trump and the late, great Charlie Kirk, Congressman Biggs has the support of national and local Republican leaders and organizations, plus the consistent voting record to show he'll always stand up for the conservative values of Arizonans," said Drew Sexton, Biggs' senior campaign adviser.

Kirk, the co-founder of the youth-focused conservative organization Turning Point USA, was assassinated while speaking at a college campus in Utah on Sept. 10. His widow pledged to take up his work and grow Turning Point's strength in his memory.

Kirk had warned Schweikert against launching a gubernatorial campaign about a month before his death, posting on social media Aug. 18 that "David would be wise not to do this." Turning Point executive Tyler Bowyer amplified that message after Schweikert's announcement, a sign that faction of the Republican party might try to torpedo Schweikert's chances.

That could take some pressure off Taylor Robson. Despite her efforts to highlight Trump's support, she has been unable to win over some farther-right GOP figures who view Biggs as the more Trump-aligned candidate.

She also welcomed Schweikert to the race but reiterated her pitch to voters that she is the outsider candidate with a business background competing against two career politicians. Though she has never won an election before, Taylor Robson is politically connected and was previously named by former Gov. Doug Ducey to the Arizona Board of Regents overseeing the state's three public universities.

Jeff Glassburner, Taylor Robson's senior campaign adviser, said Schweikert was "a career politician with a well-documented history of opposing President Trump, including abandoning his district at a critical time when President Trump and House Republicans relied on his presence to secure re-election and maintain our House majority."

Schweikert told The Republic the White House would have preferred he remain in Congress but understood his personal and policy reasons for seeking the Governor's Office.

By stepping away from Congress, Schweikert leaves open a critical seat that could decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. While political forecasters predict the seat is winnable by either party, Schweikert's departure gives up an incumbent advantage and could help Democrats flip the seat.