Dusty Johnson

South Dakota's incumbent governor faced a blow to his gubernatorial campaign after a new poll showed him slipping behind a fringe candidate ahead of an upcoming Republican primary.

According to a survey released March 11 and conducted by Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, Gov. Larry Rhoden fell to third in a four-man race for the state's governor job, just behind Aberdeen businessman and conservative activist Toby Doeden.

The poll showed U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson in first place with 28% support, Doeden with 18%, Rhoden at 17% percent, State Rep. Jon Hansen at 14%, and 23% undecided. Under South Dakota Codified Law, primary run-off is required if no candidate wins more than 35% of the vote in a race with three or more candidates.

Emerson College conducted the poll between March 7-9. 1,000 South Dakota likely voters were surveyed, with 413 of those queried specifically weighing in on the GOP gubernatorial contest.

“Incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden, who came into office after Kristi Noem was appointed to the Trump administration, faces a difficult election campaign as Rep. Dusty Johnson has garnered plurality support ahead of the June primary,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated in a press release.

Johnson, South Dakota's lone congressional delegate in the U.S. House, has maintained a solid polling lead in South Dakota's upcoming GOP gubernatorial primary. A similarly sized South Dakota News Watch/Chiesman Center poll published in October 2025 also showed Johnson leading the primary race with 28% of voters' support and Rhoden narrowly behind at 27%.

Michael Card, emeritus professor of political science at the University of South Dakota, told the Argus Leader that Rhoden's ratings may be suffering from his association with Kristi Noem, formerly the governor of South Dakota, whom he served as lieutenant governor before she left the gubernatorial job to be President Donald Trump's Cabinet Secretary of Homeland Security.

Trump recently assigned Noem out of the top-level job and announced she would take on a role as special envoy for "The Shield of the Americas," a security initiative against narcotics trafficking in the Western Hemisphere. Rhoden defended Noem throughout intense public, congressional and media scrutiny of her role, including during an impeachment effort initiated in January.

"Rhoden's lower ratings may be due to his association with former Gov. Noem, who has faced harsh criticism that's harder to ignore when it is coming form all media, including very conservative outlets [like] Fox, the Economist, and the Wall Street Journal," Card said.

Hansen, who serves as speaker of the South Dakota House, has also consistently placed at the bottom of the charts in the GOP primary battle.

"[Hansen's] low return may be low name recognition or they don't like what they see," Card said.

The Argus Leader has reached out to the Republican gubernatorial campaigns for comments on the poll. Most responses had not been received as of 12: 45 p.m. CDT March 11.

In a brief email, Johnson didn't directly address the survey results but instead spoke generally of the upcoming primary fight.

"This election is about how we can make the next 20 years the best years possible for South Dakota," Johnson stated. "We need a leader with the energy and an actual plan to drive our state forward. I’m committed to doing just that."

South Dakota's Republican primary for governor is June 2.