Haley Stevens

State senator Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal from Michigan’s U.S. Senate race has narrowed the Democratic primary to a two-candidate contest, setting up a high-stakes battle between U.S. Representative Haley Stevens and public health official Abdul El-Sayed.

Both candidates are ramping up their campaigns to prove who is better positioned to face Republican nominee Mike Rogers in November.

Michigan represents one of the Republican Party’s prime opportunities to flip a Democratic-held seat in this year's midterm elections. The battleground state is among the most politically competitive in the nation, with an electorate roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. In 2024, President Donald Trump carried the state by fewer than 2 percentage points.

While Democrats express confidence that a more favorable national environment will lift their eventual nominee, the race remains highly competitive. The seat was left open by the retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters, and Democrats now face a fractured primary ahead of a matchup with Rogers, a well-known former congressman.

Recent polling indicates a neck-and-neck race regardless of which Democrat secures the nomination, ensuring that Michigan will remain a central focus of the fight for control of the Senate in the coming months.

El-Sayed vs. Stevens: Who Polls Better Against Rogers in Michigan Race

El-Sayed and Stevens would be expected to face a competitive race against Rogers in November, according to recent polls. Electability will be a major question primary voters face.

The Democratic establishment argues that Stevens, a centrist who in 2018 flipped a GOP-held seat in the House of Representatives, would make a stronger candidate in November and would have a better chance of winning independents and moderate Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, has said she is the “best chance” of holding the seat for Democrats.

But progressives are rallying behind El-Sayed, who has the support of independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Democrat Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. They believe he would pull stronger turnout from the left and may be able to win back the state’s Arab American voters in Dearborn who declined to support former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in June announced a new ad calling El-Sayed “too radical for Michigan,” pointing to his support for Medicare for All and abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The ad has been seen as an attempt to boost him in the primary against Stevens.

The latest survey from Quantus Insights showed a razor-thin margin in both hypothetical matchups, suggesting the race remains in the margin of error.

Stevens had a slightly stronger 1.4-point lead, winning 45.1 percent support to Rogers’ 43.7 percent. El-Sayed led the poll by 1.1 points with 45.2 percent to Rogers’ 44.1 percent, according to the pollster.

It was conducted among 947 likely voters from June 29 to 30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

“In the general election, the topline story is stability. Michigan looks like a polarized, nationalized Senate race. Democrats largely consolidate around their nominees. Republicans consolidate around Rogers," the polling report reads. “The fight is in the middle, where small differences among Independents, women, younger voters, and college-educated voters could decide the outcome.”

A Zenith Research poll, which surveyed 602 likely voters from June 11 to 14 and was sponsored by a pro-El-Sayed PAC, showed El-Sayed in a slightly stronger position.

In that poll, 45 percent of respondents said they would support El-Sayed, while 42 percent said they would cast their ballot for Rogers. Meanwhile, Stevens’ support stood at 43 percent against Rogers’ 42 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed El-Sayed leading by 5 points, with 47 percent to Rogers’ 42 percent. Meanwhile, Rogers held a lead against Stevens with 45 percent support to the Democratic candidate’s 41 percent. It surveyed 827 likely voters from June 11 to 13.

Joetta Appiah, spokesperson for Stevens, told Newsweek polls have “consistently” shown Stevens as the strongest candidate in the race to defeat Rogers.

“That’s why Republicans are spending to boost Abdul in the primary, and GOP leadership is saying Abdul is ‘going to make it even better’ for them in Michigan,” she said. “Meanwhile, Haley continues to build the broad, statewide coalition needed to win, with strong support from independent and Black voters. Michigan Democrats are focused on holding this seat, and the data continues to show that Haley is the strongest candidate to get the job done.”

Newsweek also reached out to the campaigns for El-Sayed and Rogers for comment via email.

How McMorrow’s Exit Changes Democratic Primary

McMorrow announced she is suspending her campaign in a post to X on Sunday, after recent polling suggested her support had declined against El-Sayed and Stevens.

“Today, I'm announcing that I am suspending my campaign for United States Senate. And I'm doing it with a deep, deep sense of gratitude,” she wrote. “For our thousands of volunteers, for everyone who donated what you could — building a campaign with zero corporate PAC dollars. For my staff, who built this team up from nothing. I thank you.”

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McMorrow tried to stake an ideological path in the middle of the two other candidates—more progressive than Stevens but more moderate than El-Sayed. Her exit leaves open more voters ahead of the primary, with both major candidates making an appeal to them.

“The same party insiders she had the courage to challenge have been bullying anyone who opposes their chosen candidate,” El-Sayed wrote in a post to X. “I welcome her supporters to our movement to stand up against money in politics, to put money back in pockets, and pass Medicare for All. We cannot allow the establishment to decide our nominee for us.”

Stevens also wrote she would be “honored” for McMorrow’s supporters to back her.

“It’s never been more critical that we beat Mike Rogers, win this seat in November, and take back control of the Senate so we can finally put a real check on Trump’s chaos and harm to Michiganders. I’ve been laser focused on that mission since day one. If you are too, join us,” she wrote on X.

A Data for Progress poll released earlier in the spring found that many McMorrow voters viewed Stevens as their second choice. Fifty-five percent said they would support Stevens, while 25 percent said they would vote for El-Sayed in a two-way race. It surveyed 515 likely primary voters from April 2 to 8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

How Michigan Became Swing State

Michigan became an electoral battleground over the past decade. Former President Barack Obama easily won the state in both of his runs—by more than 16 points in 2008 and by just under 10 points in 2012. But Trump flipped it in 2016, carrying it by less than half a percentage point.

Trump made gains across the state due to his strong showing among white voters in rural areas who backed Obama. He lost ground in the suburbs around Detroit and Grand Rapids, but rural gains made up for it. Democrats struggled to win back those voters in significant numbers in recent cycles but continued to make gains in the suburbs.

Michigan flipped back to Democrats in 2020, when former President Joe Biden carried it by just under 2 points. But Trump won it again in 2024 by about 1.4 points—the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

At the same time, Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin won an open seat by less than half a percentage point in 2024.

Michigan was particularly tricky for Democrats in 2024. Harris lost significant ground among Michigan’s large Arab American community, many of whom declined to support her due to the Biden administration’s strong support for Israel amid the conflict in Gaza.

Winning back those voters will be a critical task for whichever Democrat emerges from the Senate primary, as Democrats cannot afford to lose Michigan.

What Do Prediction Markets Show About Michigan’s Senate Race?

In the general election, Democrats have long been favored in prediction markets. Kalshi gives Democrats a 71 percent chance, while their chances of holding the seat stood at 72 percent on Polymarket as of Monday morning.

In the primary, El-Sayed’s chances of winning dipped slightly after McMorrow’s exit, though he still remains favored. His chances stood at 82 percent on Kalshi on Monday, down from 87 percent on Friday. On Polymarket, he had an 84 percent chance of winning, down from 88 percent on Friday.

Prior to late April, Kalshi’s prediction market favored McMorrow for months, giving her nearly a 64 percent chance of winning on April 11. But in the weeks that followed, traders shifted their confidence toward El-Sayed, whose chances have steadily grown since then.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the Senate

Democrats anticipate a favorable national environment amid Trump’s declining national approval rating, which has tumbled amid economic concerns tied to the cost of living and higher gas prices due to the Iran war. But Michigan’s Senate race is still viewed as highly competitive for both parties.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control.

Democrats are defending a seat in another Trump-won state. Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection in Georgia, a race deemed "Lean Democrat" by the Cook Political Report. They view GOP-held states in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points, and North Carolina, which he won by just 3 points, as top flip opportunities.

But there are no other Senate races in Harris-won or single-digit Trump states, meaning Democrats have to expand the Senate battleground and compete in more conservative areas if they want to win a majority. They are targeting GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential states to flip.

The Cook Political Report classifies four races, those in Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio, as toss ups.

Prediction markets favor Republicans to win the Senate. The GOP had a 60 percent chance on both Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket of holding on to its majority as of Monday.

Can Abdul El-Sayed Be Next Progressive Victory?

The political left has scored numerous victories in recent primaries. Progressive candidates Brad Lander, Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier won House primaries in New York. In Colorado, progressive Melat Kiros unseated Representative Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary for a Denver-based House seat, while state legislator Julie Gonzales came close to defeating Senator John Hickenlooper in the primary.

The Michigan Senate race will be a major test for the left.

El-Sayed’s candidacy will gauge whether progressives can win statewide in a competitive, purple state carried by Trump in the last presidential election—or whether the so-called Democratic Tea Party is confined to safer seats.

What Happens Next

Michigan’s primary is set for August 4, so candidates still have more than a month to make their cases to voters and convince their supporters to vote. Polls will continue to be watched as a critical gauge of the electorate’s mood.