Haley Stevens

Recent polls of Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary have shown a comfortable lead for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, over Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate four-term congresswoman. However, some uncertainty remains, given how difficult it is to predict who will turn out for primaries, an issue that has sometimes led to surprising outcomes.

The race for the Democratic nomination sharpened in early July when Mallory McMorrow, a state senator, dropped out (her name will still appear on the ballot). Since Ms. McMorrow’s exit, Dr. El-Sayed has clear leads of more than 10 percentage points in seven of the nine polls fielded.