Haley Stevens

Former Michigan Governor and U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has endorsed Haley Stevens in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, saying the Birmingham congresswoman has “Michigan grit.”

“Michigan’s next Senator needs to focus on Michigan jobs, Michigan manufacturing, bringing down costs for Michigan families and standing up for Michigan against Donald Trump’s recklessness,” Granholm said in a statement. “That’s Haley Stevens.”

Stevens is running in a close Democratic primary contest against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed.

Recent polls don’t agree who might be the frontrunner.

A May poll from Mitchell Research & Communications shows El-Sayed with a 10-point lead over Stevens, but April polls from the Glengariff Group and Data for Progress showed Stevens slightly ahead of her opponents, though in both cases her lead was within the margin of error. A third poll, from Emerson College, showed McMorrow and El-Sayed tied for the lead.

The primary race has been framed as a sort of referendum on the future of the Democratic Party.

Stevens has won the backing of centrist Democrats. She was endorsed by former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow earlier this month. The progressive El-Sayed has been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Michigan Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib. McMorrow, who is running to the left of Stevens, has been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

The winner of the primary will likely face former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers, the Republican frontrunner, in November.

The race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, who is not running for reelection, is one of the few toss-up Senate races in the country and the only one that doesn’t involve an incumbent.

It will be difficult for Democrats to retake the Senate without winning Michigan.

A Republican super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, has pledged $45 million to help him win the race.

Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC affiliated with Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, has pledged $20 million to the contest.

A Glengariff Group poll released last week put Rogers slightly ahead of the Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups, though within the margin of error in the cases of Stevens and McMorrow. The poll gave Stevens the best chance of defeating him.

But pollster Richard Czuba said Rogers has a more difficult path to victory than the matchup numbers might indicate, noting that it found significant numbers of undecided voters in every matchup, as much as 16.5% percent of respondents.

“When you look at those undecided voters, 70% of them disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing,” Czuba said. “If this is a referendum on Donald Trump, where do those undecided voters go?”

In her endorsement, Granholm praised Stevens’ work as chief of staff to President Barack Obama’s auto rescue, saying she was “a key member of the team that helped save 200,000 Michigan auto jobs.”

“Now she’s taking on Trump to protect our auto industry from China, end his damaging tariffs and bring down costs for Michiganders,” Granholm said. “Haley delivers for Michigan and will beat Mike Rogers this November, and I couldn’t be more proud to support her.”