Haley Stevens

Warning: If you're closely watching the prospects of the Democrats battling for Michigan's U.S. Senate nomination, the following story could give you whiplash.

A new independent poll − this one done by the Glengariff Group polling firm in Lansing for the Detroit Regional Chamber and released April 28th − shows U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens with 24.9% support, compared to 22.9% for former Wayne County and Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow trailing them at 16%.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, that means that, if the poll is accurate, Stevens may have the slightest of leads but that she and El-Sayed are roughly tied for the lead.

That might not seem like a surprise if you're not paying too much attention to a primary still more than three months away. But if you are attuned to what's happening in a race that could have national implications, you probably already know that two weeks ago, a poll by Emerson College of Boston and WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids had something of a flipped result: McMorrow and El-Sayed led, each having 24% of the support; Stevens trailed with 13%.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls actually shows El-Sayed with the slimmest of leads right now but all three right around 20% support, indicating a too-close-to-call contest.

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It's worth noting that, at the time of the Emerson/WOOD-TV poll, Stevens' campaign argued the poll's model didn't make sense, overestimating the impact of younger voters and underestimating that of older ones, while Emerson defended its findings. But the new poll − for which Glengariff surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters by telephone with live operators April 17-19 − had respondents in ranges more closely tracking what the state has seen in recent primary elections.

On the other hand, McMorrow's campaign, while not blasting the Chamber poll per se, said every recent indication still points to her campaign and El-Sayed's being ascendant while Stevens, the more mainstream Democrat of the three who had been seen as the frontrunner until recently, is in danger of faltering. That may be so − polls can be and sometimes are wrong − but that is not what this particular data point says.

Stevens' campaign spokesperson, Joetta Appiah, said the available polling has shown "Haley is the strongest Democrat in this race," which isn't entirely fair to the others − see the Real Clear Politics average and Emerson polls mentioned above − but most polls show her faring better in the general election in November than the other two.

And the Chamber poll does back up Stevens' claim that she does better with older Democratic primary voters than the other two: 35% of the surveyed voters 55-64 supported her, as did 31% of those over 65. (The best the other two did among those voters was McMorrow's 21% among voters 55-64; otherwise they both scored in the teens.) El-Sayed, who is widely seen as the most progressive candidate, had the support of 40% of those voters surveyed ages 18-39 compared to Stevens' 13% and McMorrow's 5.4%.

But recent primaries show older voters make up a much bigger bloc than younger ones, accounting for a quarter to a third of all those voting. (Voters under the age of 40 typically account for less than 20% of those voting.)

For what it's worth, in both of these polls, "undecided" still scores better with Democratic primary voters than either of the candidates, with 36% in each. And with a race this tight and, frankly, inconclusive at this point, there is no reason to believe they will break in one particular way or another.

What's not inconclusive is the likelihood that Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers is the GOP nominee for the race to replace U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, who is stepping down after two six-year terms. With President Donald Trump's endorsement, vast financial backing and name recognition from a narrow loss to Sen. Elissa Slotkin two years ago, the Chamber didn't even bother to poll the Republican battle for the Aug. 4 primary.