Haley Stevens

Former public health official Abdul El-Sayed appears to have strengthened his position in the final stretch of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, with prediction markets moving in his favor after a high-profile debate that highlighted the stark differences between him and four-term Representative Haley Stevens.

The candidates clashed on Monday in their final debate before Michigan's August 4 Democratic Senate primary, sparring over American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spending, Israel, immigration and the future of the Democratic Party.

With voting already underway and just days remaining until the primary, new prediction market movements suggest momentum may be shifting toward the more progressive El-Sayed.

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Next Tuesday's primary will see Michigan Democrats choose a nominee to face Republican Mike Rogers in one of the party's most important Senate battleground races of 2026.

Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Stevens and El-Sayed for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The contest to replace retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters has become one of the most expensive and ideologically charged Democratic primaries in the country.

The race is now more than a battle between two candidates, having evolved into a broader fight over issues such as the U.S.'s support for Israel, campaign finance transparency and the ideological direction of the Democratic Party.

What Prediction Markets Say

While polls offer snapshots of voter sentiment, prediction markets attempt to estimate the probability of an outcome by allowing participants to trade contracts based on election results.

Prediction markets can incorporate large amounts of information quickly, including polling, fundraising, endorsements and campaign developments. But they can also be influenced by trader sentiment, liquidity limitations and speculative behavior rather than actual voting intentions.

Both major political prediction markets have recently moved in El-Sayed's favor.

On Kalshi, El-Sayed's implied chance of winning the Democratic primary rose on Tuesday to 71 percent, up from 64 percent on July 26. Stevens' probability fell to 30 percent from 36 percent over the same period.

Polymarket showed a similar shift. El-Sayed's chances increased to 72 percent on Tuesday, rising from 65 percent on July 26, while Stevens' fell to 30 percent from 36 percent.

Debate Highlights Deep Divisions in the Race

Monday's debate showcased the contrasting styles and political philosophies of the two candidates.

El-Sayed repeatedly attacked Stevens over support from groups linked to AIPAC, arguing that large-scale outside spending could influence her conduct in the Senate.

Stevens pushed back by portraying herself as a pragmatic lawmaker focused on delivering results for Michigan.

She also questioned whether El-Sayed was more interested in national prominence than the day-to-day work of serving in the Senate, describing him as a "celebrity candidate."

The candidates also sparred over immigration, with El-Sayed saying he would abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, while Stevens emphasized efforts to reform the agency.

Differences over Israel, campaign finance and Democratic Party priorities were recurring themes throughout the debate.

Recent Polls Paint a Mixed Picture

Polling in the race has produced conflicting results over recent weeks.

The latest survey comes from Tulchin Research, which conducted a poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters between July 13 and 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.

The survey gave El-Sayed a 16-point lead, with 56 percent support compared with 40 percent for Stevens and 4 percent undecided.

Another recent poll, conducted by Data for Progress between July 10 and 14 for American Priorities, surveyed 614 likely Democratic primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

That poll found El-Sayed ahead by 13 points, 54 percent to 41 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

Data for Progress also reported a significant gap in candidate favorability ratings. El-Sayed posted a 69 percent favorable and 17 percent unfavorable rating among respondents, while Stevens registered 55 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable.

Not all surveys have shown El-Sayed leading. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by Glengariff Group between July 8 and 11 surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. That poll put Stevens ahead of El-Sayed with 48 percent to his 41 percent.

Glengariff pollster Richard Czuba described the race as "wide open," noting that a large bloc of undecided and less-committed voters remained available to both campaigns.

Competing Electoral Coalitions

The polling suggests each candidate is relying on a different coalition of voters.

According to the Detroit News survey, Stevens performed particularly well among Black voters, older voters and those without college degrees. She also showed strength among absentee voters who had already cast ballots.

El-Sayed's support was concentrated among younger voters, white voters, college-educated Democrats and self-described democratic socialists. The survey also indicated he was running strongly among voters planning to cast ballots on Election Day.

Stevens' coalition appears stronger among demographics that traditionally have higher turnout rates, while El-Sayed's coalition is built around groups that can be more variable in their participation.

How successfully each campaign turns out supporters could be decisive.

What Happens Next

Taken together, the recent movement in prediction markets suggests traders increasingly believe El-Sayed is the favorite heading into the campaign's final week.

Still, Michigan's Democratic primary has produced conflicting data throughout the campaign, and substantial early voting means many ballots may already have been cast before the final debate.