Haley Stevens

Sanders-backed progressive Abdul El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens by 15 points in Michigan’s Democrat U.S. Senate primary, according to an Emerson College poll released Thursday, days before the August 4 contest.

El-Sayed pulled 54 percent to Stevens’ 39, with six percent still undecided. Pushed to say which way they lean, those holdouts only stretched his edge to 57-41. The winner replaces retiring Democrat Sen. Gary Peters, and both parties want the seat come November.

El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, lost a governor’s race in 2018 by more than 20 points. He is not the underdog this time. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and the United Auto Workers have all lined up behind him, and a win would make him the first Muslim senator.

Sen. Peters backs Stevens, the four-term congresswoman from suburban Detroit, as do Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. At their final debate this week, the two traded shots over AIPAC money, Israel, and socialism.

The split driving El-Sayed’s lead is generational. Spencer Kimball, who runs Emerson College Polling, said the age gap is stark.

“There is a clear age divide in the Democratic Primary: voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, 67% to 25%, and that gap tightens among voters in their 50s to a 12-point lead, and voters over 60 flip to Stevens by a 14-point margin, 53% to 39%,” Kimball said.

Independents give El-Sayed a 27-point cushion, 60-33. His margin among Democrats is thinner, nine points. He runs up a 32-point lead with white voters, but black voters break the other way and hand Stevens a 33-point advantage.

Whitmer, meanwhile, has lost altitude with the voters deciding this thing. Just 62 percent of Democrat primary voters approve of her now, down from 79 percent in April. The ones who still approve favor Stevens 49-42. The ones who don’t back El-Sayed 78-17.