Haley Stevens

The three-way Democratic Senate primary in Michigan is a remarkably precise microcosm of the divides within the Democratic Party. Representing the Bernie Sanders wing is Abdul El-Sayed, a proponent of Medicare for All who supports abolishing ICE and cutting off arms to Israel. The candidate of the Democratic establishment is the passionately pro-Israel congresswoman Haley Stevens, backed by the Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer. Between them is the liberal state lawmaker Mallory McMorrow, endorsed by progressive senators including Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy.

Most recent polls show El-Sayed ahead, reflecting a Democratic electorate that’s increasingly furious with party leaders and open to left-wing insurgents. His lead has panicked some centrist Democrats. According to The Wall Street Journal, Michigan’s retiring Democratic senator, Gary Peters, is telling people that McMorrow, running a distant third in recent polls, should consider leaving the race so that Democrats can coalesce around an alternative to El-Sayed. “The chatter is growing louder that you should drop out,” a CNN host told McMorrow last week.

Behind that chatter is the assumption that Stevens represents the Democratic Party’s best hope of holding a crucial Senate seat. But while the case for her candidacy rests on electability, it’s far from clear how electable she really is. Mainstream Democrats like Schumer have a theory about the kind of candidates who can win in purple states, but that theory might be outdated.

Conventional wisdom holds that moderates outperform progressives in competitive elections. Though there’s a robust academic debate about whether this is really true, it’s easy enough to find anecdotal evidence. The most progressive candidates generally come from deep-blue districts, while candidates who flip Republican-held seats — like Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington State and Tom Suozzi in New York — tend to be more centrist. In a May New York Times/Siena poll, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents wanted to see their party move left on economics, but become more moderate on crime and immigration.

So all things being equal, an air of moderation is likely an advantage in purple states. But in Michigan, all things are not equal. Stevens is not a particularly adept politician. Many of her views are out of step with both Democratic and independent voters in ways that could hurt turnout. She’s a creature of the Democratic establishment at a moment when that establishment has never been more reviled.

In 2022, Stevens defeated Representative Andy Levin, a Jewish liberal Zionist targeted by AIPAC for his support for a Palestinian state. AIPAC spent heavily in the race, and when Stevens won, the group crowed, “Being pro-Israel is both good policy and good politics!” In office, Stevens has been a consistent champion of the Jewish state. “Israel comes to me in my dreams!” she shouted in a viral 2023 speech.

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