Haley Stevens

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In the days before Haley Stevens did the unthinkable and endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s fiercely contested Senate race, her staff and Democratic leaders were imploring her not to jump ship. “There have been an unbelievable amount of people who have talked to her in the last 48 hours,” a top Michigan Democratic operative told me Sunday. “Everyone’s been in touch with Haley.”

One of those people was Maryland representative Jamie Raskin, whose takeaway Saturday night was that Stevens would not support the Trump-backed Republican. “I’m dumbfounded that Haley would tell me one thing last night and then change her mind today,” Raskin told me Sunday.

The reason Democrats were concerned was because Stevens, who ostensibly backed Abdul El-Sayed after August’s bitter primary, had recently ratcheted up criticism of the nominee, and some feared a defection. But in text messages to friends on Saturday, I learned, Stevens signaled that she was still supporting El-Sayed and didn’t plan to make any news on Sunday. (Similarly, Politico reported that Stevens told one Michigan official: “I am voting straight Dem!!!!”) “She’s told people different things, but all have been hogwash,” said one top Democratic strategist who has worked extensively in Michigan. “I think this was always the plan.”

On Sunday, Stevens announced her endorsement of Rogers, who she previously said would serve as a “rubber stamp” for Donald Trump. She described her decision as “personal and private” during a press conference alongside Rogers. And she said she was “not turning my back on Democrats,” a claim virtually no one in the party is buying. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, who backed Stevens in the primary, called it a “despicable betrayal,” while Michigan senator Elissa Slotkin said that “anyone who makes an election this important about themselves, and not Michiganders and our democracy, should think hard about whether they are serving the greater good.” Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Curtis Hertel put it bluntly: “Congresswoman Stevens is not a current member of the Michigan Democratic Party, nor will she be in the future.”

When I asked Michigan state representative Joe Tate, a former Speaker for that chamber, if Stevens would be welcome in Democratic politics going forward, he sighed before stressing that the congresswoman is a friend. Still, he said, “this is a team sport” and “when you do something like this and you make a decision like this you’re going to have hard feelings.” Another Michigan-based Democratic strategist suggested Stevens doesn’t have a place now in the party. “I think this is a bridge too far both in terms of the how and the when, regardless of the why,” they said. “I can’t and have no interest of getting in her head.”

While Stevens framed her decision to back the Republican candidate as a rejection of “hate” on the left, the abrupt nature of the move appears motivated more by personal pique than principle. In a New York Times interview published Saturday morning, Stevens said she would attend El-Sayed’s Sunday unity rally at a Detroit church with Rep. James Clyburn. That evening, El-Sayed said he didn’t want Stevens to attend. In a video posted Sunday morning, she referenced El-Sayed telling her to stay away in her explanation of why she switched to Rogers. (Stevens also referenced controversial Twitch streamer Hasan Piker in the video and later, while standing alongside Rogers — not exactly a new reason to withdraw support at the 11th hour.)

The war in Gaza and U.S. military support for Israel had been a contentious issue during the Democratic primary. El-Sayed, a Muslim-American and outspoken critic of Israel, called out AIPAC and its affiliated groups for spending roughly $30 million to support Stevens, a “proud pro-Israel Democrat.”

In recent days, Stevens and her fiancé, Jason Turkish, have fixated on a digital ad created by an outside group, Rebellion PAC, which suggested higher grocery prices are the result of U.S. support of Israel; they have framed the spot as antisemitic. El-Sayed’s campaign made clear nearly a week ago that it was “not affiliated in any way” with the ad, which never ran in Michigan and largely moved through national politics circles online.

Turkish, who is Jewish, announced Wednesday that he was endorsing Rogers, accused El-Sayed of acting “recklessly toward the safety of Jews in the community,” and attended an event for the Republican nominee. (He’d later embark on a media blitz, appearing everywhere from TMZ to Fox News to bash El-Sayed and express support for Rogers.) People close to Stevens see Turkish as having an outsized influence over her thinking, and believe he’s a driver of her erratic behavior. One Democrat close to Stevens suggested the congresswoman is “not well” and expressed hope that she could “get away from this situation and get help.” Stevens’s mother, however, told CNN that Stevens is “her own woman” and it was “insulting” to suggest otherwise.

Stevens alarmed Democrats after putting out a rambling Friday statement in which she couched her ongoing support for El-Sayed and attendance at the Sunday unity rally with the nominee’s “expected condemnation” of the Rebellion PAC ad. She also urged El-Sayed’s campaign to take down one of their own ads featuring right-wing host and Rogers critic Tucker Carlson. Democrats were baffled by Stevens’s behavior, which had now fueled another news cycle. “I have no idea what she thinks she’s doing,” Michigan state senator Mallory McMorrow, who also ran in the Senate primary, told me in a text message Friday night. “We have one job and it’s everyone lock in and win.”

Stevens’s endorsement triggered a mass exodus from her congressional staff, including Justin German, who served as her chief of staff for eight years. “This election is too important to sow division or stand on the sidelines,” he said in a statement. “We are shocked and heartbroken by Congresswoman Stevens’s decision to support Mike Rogers.” Caitlin Legacki, a veteran Democratic operative and top communications adviser for Stevens’s failed Senate campaign, told me that “Democrats both from her official team and her campaign team are all united in helping Abdul get across the finish line.”

“There are multiple different group chats with both Abdul staff and former Stevens staff to try and help coordinate response and try and make sure that this does not sow any more division than it already has,” Legacki added. Even Democrats who have been critical of El-Sayed, like Center for American Progress CEO Neera Tanden, tweeted, “Standing with Mike Rogers is a betrayal of everything Haley Stevens has fought for her entire career.”

While Democrats are unified in their condemnation of Stevens, they’re split on the impact. One school of thought is that it’s too little, too late. Michigan is a light blue state, and a large chunk of voters have already cast their ballots. When I asked one of the Democratic strategists if this was a game changer, he said, “No. But it entertains all the media in Detroit with nothing to do.” Another top Michigan operative added, “I think very few voters are looking to Haley Stevens. I think the impact is small.”

Still, while most Democratic voters surely made up their minds, the small sliver who haven’t, and may have been wary of El-Sayed, have now been given license to back Rogers. “I think if she had gone on the trail with Rogers two weeks ago we would be talking about 8,000 to 10,000 votes potentially swinging,” Michigan political strategist Andrea Bitely said. “Now I think we’re talking 3,000 to 5,000 votes, which honestly could be the margin.”

If El-Sayed wins, as most polls indicate he will, Stevens will be remembered by many as a sore loser whose last-ditch attempt at sabotage failed. If El-Sayed