Haley Stevens

A new, independent poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan shows state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County and Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed in a tie to be their party's nominee for a soon-to-be-open U.S. Senate seat.

If accurate, the poll, done by Emerson College in Boston and sponsored by WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids and Nexstar Media, also suggests the Aug. 4 primary could become a two-person race to decide which Democrat will face the Republican nominee, with former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake widely expected to win that party's primary the same day.

Some questions about the poll's methodology have been raised, though Emerson defended it.

McMorrow and El-Sayed are tied, with each having the support of 24% of those surveyed in the Emerson College/WOOD-TV poll released Thursday, April 16. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, of Birmingham, who had earlier been seen as the likely frontrunner, trailed with just 13%. A plurality, 36%, were undecided and 3% didn't answer or favored someone else.

The poll, for which 519 likely Democratic primary voters were surveyed from April 11-13, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. An earlier poll by Emerson, done in January, showed McMorrow leading Stevens 22%-17%, with El-Sayed at 16%. WOOD-TV, in Grand Rapids, is a former polling partner of the Free Press.

Stevens' campaign blasted the poll. Brian Stryker, a pollster at Impact Research in Chicago who works for Stevens, said on social media platform X that Emerson's poll methodology "is irresponsibly flawed" and that it shouldn't have been released. "It massively underrepresents the older, non-college Democratic primary voters that support Haley Stevens the most in every poll," he said.

Stryker went on to write that in 2018, which he described as "the most similar" election, 45% of voters were over the age of 60 but the Emerson poll had 31% over 60 and more voters under the age of 30 than over the age of 70, despite that being flipped in the earlier vote. He said it also overrepresents the number of primary voters with a college degree and Black voters under the age of 40.

"Emerson put out an outlier poll last time in Michigan, were made aware of their errors, and then doubled down on them with an even more skewed poll. Their poll is an outlier because it’s badly done," Stryker said. "That's why every quality pollster who has polled this race this year ... shows a close race with most having Haley Stevens in the lead."

Camille Mumford, communications director for Emerson's polling unit, justified the survey's methodology, saying, "Every pollster will make judgment calls when it comes to modeling the electorate."

"Emerson’s assumption is that the primary vote will be younger than that of past midterm elections, based on voter file data and turnout in recent elections," she continued in an email to the Free Press. "That said, even if our data is adjusted to an older and less college-educated electorate, the topline numbers in the Democratic Primary do not significantly shift: McMorrow and El-Sayed continue to lead the primary in our results and Stevens trails. Second, this poll is among likely primary voters, not the general electorate, which is clearly stated in the poll's methodological section."

The poll comes as campaign finance reports indicate that McMorrow, of Royal Oak, has erased any financial advantage Stevens had in the race for the nomination to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is stepping down after two six-year terms.

Emerson contacted its random sample of registered voters by email, as well as using text messages and person-to-person interviews to survey a panel of voters. The poll also showed 55% of likely Republican primary voters in Michigan favoring Rogers, with 38% undecided and none of his lesser-known challengers with more than 2% of the support. The Republican primary poll, for which 452 voters were surveyed, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

With a large undecided bloc of likely Democratic voters and three viable candidates in the race, the outcome remains unsettled, especially with a dearth of independent public polling in the primary. But McMorrow has clearly been at or near the lead in most, if not all, of the polls which have been done and from the available indications, seems to have momentum. El-Sayed, of Ann Arbor, meanwhile, is considered the most progressive candidate of the three and recent criticisms of his campaign — including his holding rallies with an Internet streamer, Hasan Piker, whose critics say is antisemitic (a claim he denies) — do not appear to have hurt his standing.

Stevens has been in Congress since 2019, having flipped what was previously a Republican-held district after having served on former President Barack Obama's auto rescue team in 2009-10. But she has also been more strongly supportive of Israel's right to defend itself and has received support from pro-Israel-aligned groups at a time when some younger and more progressive Democrats have sharply criticized Israel's war in Gaza and treatment of people in the Palestinian territories.

This story has been updated to add new information.