James Risch

Independent Todd Achilles has just been handed the best opportunity to oust an incumbent Idaho Republican U.S. senator in 70 years.

Then it was Herman Welker.

Now it could be Sen. Jim Risch.

Tuesday, Risch lost a mathematical lock on winning his fourth term when would-be spoiler, Democratic candidate David Roth, of Idaho Falls, bowed to reality and exited the race. As former Congressman Larry LaRocco, D-Idaho, noted on this page, Roth had never moved beyond the Democratic base in three tries for office — a legislative campaign, a bid for the U.S. House and another for the Senate. His fundraising record was so dismal — about $8,600 raised, $1,000 cash on hand, $10,000 in debts and a Federal Elections Commission financial disclosure report that was 11 days overdue — that the Ada County Democrats demanded Roth deliver proof of life by raising $50,000 and producing a campaign plan by Aug. 12.

Roth now has until Sept. 4 to formally withdraw. When that happens, the Democratic position on the Nov. 3 ballot will remain blank. So Achilles will not have to split the Risch opposition with Roth.

In a heavily Republican state, it’s still Risch’s race to lose.

But he’s been a virtual no-show in a state where heavy population growth has changed the demographics since he last ran for office six years ago.

As chairperson of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Risch has abdicated his constitutional duty to scrutinize the Trump administration’s disastrous war with Iran. Rather than bring administration officials into a hearing room to explain their strategy and end-game, he has preferred to serve as an apologist.

If Risch — as he has so often claimed in the past — has the president’s ear, how did he advise Trump in the days leading up to Feb. 28?

All of which makes him complicit in the outcome — the needless deaths of 18 service people, the wounding of hundreds more, the ceding control of the pivotal Strait of Hormuz to the radical Iranian regime and the loss of American credibility with friend and foe alike.

It’s not just the Trump foreign policy — the weakening of NATO and the seeming indifference to Ukraine — that Risch now owns. His support for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill has added $4 trillion to the national debt while depriving ordinary Idahoans of affordable healthcare. With Risch in his corner, Trump has engaged in the most aggressive tariff policy in a century, which has added to the cost of living.

In the midst of that, Risch has run up against the third rail of Idaho politics — the overwhelming desire of ordinary Idahoans to maintain these special public lands in public hands. Yes, Risch ultimately joined his colleagues, Sen. Mike Crapo and Congressman Mike Simpson, in blocking Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s ambitions to sell off federal holdings. But Risch also voted against Colorado Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper’s earlier effort to block disposal of federal lands. At a pivotal point, he also helped confirm former Congressman Steve Pearce, R-N.M. — an ardent backer of privatization — to head the Bureau of Land Management.

There also may be headwinds in the fall election if Proposition 1 — the ballot measure that would overturn the GOP-led Legislature’s extreme assault on the reproductive freedom of Idaho women — expands voter turnout beyond what is typical for a midterm election.

That said, Achilles remains a decided underdog. Time after time, challengers who seemed to have a healthy chance against Idaho Republican incumbents have been buried in an avalanche of last-minute GOP campaign cash.

Like James Talarico in Texas or Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Achilles will need to access the network of small check donors across the country who can provide him with the $2 million to $3 million needed to make his campaign viable.

He should make the most of the strategy — pioneered by independents Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Bill Hill in Alaska — to offer an alternative to voters who are disillusioned with both major political parties.

Force Risch to defend his own record and the next 100 days will still be an uphill climb. Achilles is going against 70 years of history. The last guy who pulled that off and defeated Welker in 1956?

His name was Frank Church. — M.T.