Jared Golden

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Read all of our coverage of Maine's 2026 election or stay up to date with the latest developments through the Maine Political Report in your inbox or text messages from politics editor Kirby Wilson.

The towns were different, but the conversations in each place started to feel similar.

Since late August, the Portland Press Herald visited eight communities in Maine’s geographically vast 2nd Congressional District that stretches from Lewiston to the Canadian border to ask voters what they think about the race. More than 20 agreed to be interviewed.

But instead of offering strong takes on the contest, voters often began with a simple question.

It is former Gov. Paul LePage — the 78-year-old Republican who grew up in Lewiston, previously served as Waterville mayor and who has moved between Florida and Maine since 2019 — against State Auditor Matt Dunlap, the 61-year-old Old Town Democrat who grew up in Bar Harbor and previously served as a state representative, secretary of state and Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine leader.

U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, the Democratic incumbent, decided last year to not seek reelection after first winning the seat in 2018.

With the basics out of the way, a reporter asked again, who would you prefer? The voters more often than not focused on LePage — though not always positively.

“Paul LePage? That’s just a no,” G. Carter, of Denmark, said one weekday morning in August while stopping at a convenience store in his Oxford County town.

“It would definitely be LePage,” another Denmark man said later that morning while quickly walking past, expressing familiarity with the Republican who led Maine from 2011 to 2019.

The conversations revealed the double-edged sword that is LePage’s strong name recognition. Endorsed by President Donald Trump, he has loyal supporters who appreciate his brash style and conservative views, and he has critics who have expressed deep reservations about those very same traits and pointed to his controversial rhetoric as governor that created both state and national headlines.

Dunlap, whose endorsers include U.S. Sen. Angus King and Gov. Janet Mills, is noticeably different with his soft-spoken demeanor and progressive platform. He is taking on the tall order of winning a politically peculiar district that has thrice backed Trump while electing Golden, a 44-year-old Marine veteran known for his moderate, party-bucking stances, to four terms.

The polarizing opinions from voters hint at why election forecasters had moved the 2nd District race in recent weeks from a “likely” LePage victory to the “lean Republican” category. Dunlap even narrowly led LePage in a University of New Hampshire poll in September that notably found just 3% of voters did not know enough about LePage to rate him. Some 20% said the same about Dunlap. (LePage won Tuesday’s mock Maine student election by receiving 52% of votes to 43.2% for Dunlap.)

The national environment — Trump faces low approval ratings and an unpopular war in Iran that has driven up fuel prices — has Democrats looking likely to retake the House in the midterms, even if LePage beats Dunlap. But setting aside the broader implications, talking with 2nd District voters ahead of Election Day is a reminder of what counts the most in rural Maine.

“People care more about who you are and (if) you know them than they care about whether you’re a Democrat or Republican,” said Tom Saviello, a Franklin County commissioner who previously served in both chambers of the Legislature as a Democrat and Republican and is now an independent, on a recent day while in his hometown of Wilton.

That sentiment can both help and hurt each candidate.

Richard Sherburne, an Augusta retiree, said he knows and likes LePage. He views the former governor as “more serious now” in terms of being prepared to serve in higher office. Maine taxpayers are “losing out” and need a candidate like LePage to help them in Congress, he added.

“He’s direct. I don’t know if he chooses his words right,” Sherburne, 68, said Wednesday while outside Augusta City Hall. “But it’s about the results.”

LePage has been more poised and relatively quieter during this 2nd District campaign, holding few events open to the press, and rarely publicly sparring with opponents. One notable exception came earlier in October, when LePage grew agitated during the race’s final televised debate after Dunlap brought up LePage’s years in Florida.

Dunlap’s supporters brought up his character and contrasted it with LePage’s style.

“I think that (Dunlap) is an honest, good person,” said Rolanda Nadeau, 69, who lives in Augusta and is retired from state government, where she had crossed paths with Dunlap when he was secretary of state.

In Androscoggin County, Dan Mastrogiorgio, of Auburn, said he’s quite familiar with LePage but does not feel the Republican has a plan to help lower heating oil costs in Maine. That’s a big issue for Mastrogiorgio, who said his annual heating oil bill may reach $1,700. He’s voting for Dunlap.

“We need some control on the federal government,” Mastrogiorgio, 41, said.

In 2022, when LePage mounted a gubernatorial comeback bid, Mills trounced him by double digits. LePage carried the 2nd District that year by about two percentage points.

Golden’s repeated victories since 2018, and the fact that his predecessor, former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (2014-2018), was the only Republican since Olympia Snowe (1978-1994) to hold the seat in recent decades, are signs of why the district “is more purple than red,” Saviello, 76, said.

The area also went to former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before backing Trump.

Wilton, a former mill town among the western Maine mountains and lakes with around 3,900 residents and a quaint Main Street, is one of several swingier communities dotted throughout the district.

Golden did well there over the years, though margins were close, such as when he beat former state Rep. Austin Theriault, a Fort Kent Republican, by 100 votes in Wilton in 2024.

That same year, Trump won Wilton over former Vice President Kamala Harris by a little more than 200 votes. Districtwide, Golden narrowly beat Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, by about 2,700 votes.

Saviello, the former state lawmaker from Wilton, said Golden did well at three things that he thinks good politicians possess.

“You have to not take (things) personally. You have to learn to count (when voting) and you have to know today’s friend is tomorrow’s enemy is tomorrow’s friend,” Saviello said.

LePage has not exactly followed norms when it comes to civil discourse over the years. When he and Saviello were both Republicans in 2018, he called Saviello “the most repugnant human” he had ever seen during a timber-related dispute.

LePage’s past behavior may cause him trouble with independent-minded voters, Saviello said. That proved prophetic when a Wilton man walking downtown said he is a registered Republican and did not want his name in the newspaper before proceeding to bash LePage’s temperament.

Other voters, such as David Heidrich of Augusta, exhibited Maine’s tough-to-characterize political nature by saying they are supporting LePage along with independent gubernatorial candidate Rick Bennett, a former state senator and Maine Republican Party chair who left the GOP last year.

The city that may ultimately render the verdict on LePage’s political future is Lewiston, his hometown. It is arguably the swingiest part of the district, and it is the