Jason Smith

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There is zero chance, absolutely none, that separatist leaders will kick Premier Danielle Smith out of office and take over the United Conservative Party.

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That’s how they talk, of course. They’re going after the premier because they don’t like her referendum question and her embrace of federalism, Alberta style.

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In the last column, I tried to explain the movement against Smith, and the obvious steps she’s taking to keep separatists out of riding nominations and UCP board positions.

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But this situation is nothing like the challenges that eventually drove former premier Jason Kenney from office in 2022.

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The ghost of his shattered leadership hovers over any challenge, naturally. It showed that even a powerful premier can be run off by his party.

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In fact, the memory of Kenney’s fate is the only thing that gives the current separatist campaign any credibility.

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I’ll plagiarize myself here by quoting something I wrote shortly after the UCP leadership vote of May 18, 2022, that forced Kenney to resign.

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“Here’s a man who left federal politics to come back to Alberta, win the leadership of one provincial party, merge it with another, form a new party from the merger and win a thundering majority in an election. How does that man get ejected from power by his own party?”

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Kenney was a hero to the right and swept away the NDP in the 2019 election.

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Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, the prime driver of Kenney’s fall, although not the only one.

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He fell in line with health restrictions that infuriated a wide range of UCP supporters, especially in rural areas. Kenney was trying to stem a pandemic that killed nearly 6,000 Albertans.

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But the deadly political forces were in play long before Kenney was pushed out.

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On April 6, 2021, 17 MLAs released a letter challenging Kenney. They said: “After 13 painstaking months of COVID-19 public health restrictions, we do not support the additional restrictions imposed on Albertans.”

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MLA Drew Barnes piloted the letter. He and Todd Loewen were expelled from caucus. Most MLAs rallied behind Kenney but the stage was set.

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The next year was an escalating uprising. More than 22 riding associations signed calls for a leadership vote.

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Shortly before that fatal night, Red Deer MLA Jason Stephan told the legislature: “Some say unity requires you to follow the leader, but Mr. Speaker, what if you’re being led over a cliff? Should you follow like a lemming? No.”