Jeanne Shaheen

FARNBOROUGH — A bipartisan group of senators attending the Farnborough Airshow this week forecast a bleak outlook for a third reconciliation bill, warning that appropriators must take action to ensure the Pentagon’s base budget includes all the funds necessary for national security priorities.

The House this week is set to debate a budget resolution that would kickstart the reconciliation process and add $60 billion for defense — a number far less than the Pentagon’s $350 billion request.

But the lawmakers said even that will be a tough sell with midterm elections quickly approaching.

“There isn’t going to be a third reconciliation package. So anything that’s in there is not going anywhere,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., a member of both the Senate Armed Services and Appropriations committees. “We need to be disciplined about the exercise of what’s a priority and what we’re going to fund.”

At an earlier media roundtable, Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas, said he was “not certain there’s going to be a reconciliation bill that passes the House and the Senate.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., added that she was worried about priorities like Golden Dome, which the Pentagon plans to fund through reconciliation instead of the base budget — meaning that unless Congress allocates that money in its annual appropriations bill, the program may be imperiled.

“We need to move forward on our appropriations bills,” she said. “Congress has to take back its responsibility of funding government, making the decisions on how on how we use taxpayer money, and we need to get it done.”

Of the lawmakers in the Farnborough delegation, only Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., seemed hopeful that the so-called “Reconciliation 3.0” will ultimately pass, though he said the House must move quickly so the Senate can begin its own work on the bill.

“The military needs money, and the only way to get it to them in this environment is through reconciliation,” he said. “I’ve seen the outline of what the House wants to do. I’d go a little bit heavier on the defense money, but that’s just me. I’ll take it if that’s the best we can do.”

Industry executives are also showing signs of skepticism that defense reconciliation dollars will materialize.

Speaking to Breaking Defense on Sunday, Honeywell Aerospace CEO Jim Currier called the budget situation “concerning, because I think reconciliation is not going to happen.”

Currier, however, said if the $350 billion doesn’t happen, Honeywell will still be alright, because so many of the parts they make used by the military also have commercial applications.

“Being a commercial business,” he said, “allows you to invest with very, very low risk as to what’s going to be happening in the defense market.”

‘Happy Hour At An Airport Chili’s‘

Congress faces a ticking clock ahead of midterm elections in November, with this week being a critical one in the House.

Along with the budget resolution, House Speaker Mike Johnson hopes to pass the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act and a continuing resolution that would extend government funding until Dec. 4, all before the lower chamber leaves Washington for August recess on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Senate version of the NDAA has stalled as Democrats press GOP leaders on the topline for the FY27 defense appropriations bill. The Senate is scheduled to go on recess on Aug. 8, leaving lawmakers just a few weeks in September to pass a CR ahead of the beginning of the fiscal year in October, a month where Congress will once again be in recess ahead of the election.

“Both chambers kind of look like the happy hour at an airport Chili’s,” Kennedy said, referencing the casual dining restaurant chain best known for its baby back ribs. “There’s just a lot of confusion,”

Moran said the NDAA must be passed, and that an extended CR is “one of the most damaging things that we can do” for the Defense Department and its industrial base.

“I’m not going to preach to my colleagues, but I’m going to say that we all want to get that done, and we ought to be working together,” he said.

Shaheen said that while it would be “helpful” to have a CR that extends through the election to ensure the government stays funded, the House’s current proposal may be incomplete.

“My understanding is you can’t really write the CR without the anomalies. And in order to get the anomalies, there has to be a directive from the administration for what those need to be,” she said. “So while they may have an outline, they don’t have a bill, and we’re not going to get that unless the administration is also weighing in.”

Kennedy said that he believes that Congress will pass a CR, but that passage of the NDAA ahead of the midterm elections in November is an impossibility.

“Anybody who thinks we’re going to do an NDAA before the midterm needs to back off the crank,” he said.