Jeff Hurd

Voters in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, which has long favored conservatives, appear evenly divided over the race’s Republican and Democratic candidates in November’s general election, polling shows .

U.S. Rep. Jeff Hurd, a Grand Junction attorney and the district’s Republican incumbent, is leading Democratic challenger Dwayne Romero, an Army veteran from the Aspen area, by just one percentage point, according to a July poll commissioned by Romero’s campaign.

The poll, conducted by Keating Research, a polling firm that has worked with other Democratic campaigns, surveyed 500 likely voters in the 3rd Congressional District, which stretches from the northwestern corner of Colorado throughout most of the Western Slope and swings east to include Pueblo. The poll was conducted from July 21-23 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Of the 500 likely voters surveyed, 46% said they would back Hurd, 45% said they would back Romero, and 9% were undecided. One percent said they would support another candidate.

In a statement, Romero said the poll shows that 3rd Congressional District voters are “ready for someone who will fight to lower costs, protect Social Security and hold corrupt politicians accountable — not rubber-stamp Washington’s chaos. I’m running because this district deserves a fighter who works for working Coloradans, not for special interests.”

Nick Bayer, a spokesperson for Hurd’s campaign, said in a text message statement that the survey “isn’t an independent poll — it’s a campaign fundraising memo designed to generate headlines and raise money.”

“If Dwayne Romero thinks selective polling is a substitute for a record or a vision for Colorado’s 3rd District, he’s mistaken,” the statement continued. “Congressman Hurd will continue talking directly to voters about the results he’s delivering, and we’ll see what they have to say in November.”

The 3rd District favors Republicans and hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since 2011. But Democrats have begun to see the district as winnable in recent years.

In 2022, former Aspen City Councilmember Adam Frisch, a Democrat, came within 546 votes of defeating Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, who previously held the seat. Keating Research predicted the race would be close, with a poll released in October of that year showing Frisch trailing Boebert by just two points.

After Boebert abandoned her reelection bid in 2024 — choosing to run in a different district — Frisch lost to Hurd by just under 20,000 votes, or five percentage points. Still, Hurd underperformed President Donald Trump that year, with Trump winning the district by 10 points.

The seat is winnable for Romero in 2026, according to the Keating Research poll, which highlights Romero’s strength in consolidating Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

The poll shows that Romero has support from 88% of likely Democratic voters and leads with unaffiliated voters by an 11-point margin. Roughly half the district’s voters — like the rest of Colorado — are unaffiliated, and their support will be critical for either candidate to win.

The poll also shows that 22% of voters view Romero unfavorably, compared to 48% who view Hurd unfavorably. While Romero has less recognition among voters, with 41% saying they do not know who he is, the poll claims this gives Romero “real room to grow.”

“Romero pairs a united Democratic base with real leads among unaffiliated voters and moderates, and he faces an incumbent who is already defined and underwater,” the poll states.

Hurd maintains a fundraising advantage over Romero following the primary election, with $1,760,849 in cash on hand compared to Romero’s $84,208, according to campaign finance reports as of June 30.

November’s election will determine control of Congress, with 35 U.S. Senate seats and all 435 House seats up for grabs. Democrats are hoping to flip both chambers, which are currently controlled by Republicans, with polling showing the party is the favorite to flip the House, where Republicans maintain a slim six-seat majority.

Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, however, is not currently being targeted by national Democrats in their list of districts to flip .

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is instead focusing on the 8th Congressional District, which encompasses the northern Denver area suburbs, and the 5th Congressional District, which is concentrated in and around Colorado Springs. Both districts are represented by Republicans.