John Cornyn

Democrat James Talarico got another boost in his bid to turn Texas blue, with a new poll showing him ahead of both potential Republican opponents, Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The poll comes a little more than six months before Texas voters decide whether to elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988.

Democrats have long fallen short in statewide races in the Lone Star State. But some recent polls point to a competitive race, with Talarico benefiting from Republican infighting, crossover appeal and broader midterm headwinds facing President Donald Trump’s party.

Newsweek has reached out to the Senate candidates for comment via email on Wednesday.

What To Know

A poll of 1,200 registered Texas voters conducted by the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, found that Talarico has an advantage against both Paxton and Cornyn in a hypothetical match-up.

Talarico won his Democratic primary in early March, but Cornyn and Paxton are headed to a runoff in the Republican primary on May 26.

The Lone Star state has reliably been seen as a GOP stronghold in recent elections, having backed President Donald Trump by a double-digit margin in the 2024 presidential election. However, Democrats are pushing to make inroads and recent overperformance in special elections has bolstered the party’s optimism.

The Democrat fares slightly better against Paxton, leading by 8 points, 42 percent to 34 percent. Five percent of voters said they would support someone else, while 19 percent said they either had no opinion or had not thought about it enough.

Cornyn narrows Talarico’s lead slightly, with Talarico ahead by 7 points, 40 percent to 33 percent. The same share of voters, 19 percent, are undecided, while 7 percent said they would support someone else.

In terms of favorability, Talarico has the highest among the three candidates, with 39 percent compared to Paxton’s 33 percent and Cornyn’s 31 percent. Cornyn and Paxton have similar unfavorable ratings, 43 percent and 42 percent respectively, while Talarico has a 29 percent unfavorable rating.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

A Cornyn spokesperson declined to comment on the poll when reached by Newsweek Wednesday morning.

What Other Polls Show About Senate Race in Texas

Talarico has been leading several recent polls, including a Texas Public Opinion Research conducted between April 17 to 20. In that poll, Cornyn trails his Democratic rival by 3 percentage points in the survey, with Talarico at 44 percent and the incumbent Republican at 41 percent.

When pitted against Paxton, Talarico performs even better with 46 percent support to the GOP candidate's 41 percent—a lead of 5 points.

Talarico’s advantage among moderate and independent voters powered his lead in this poll.

He led moderates by 43 points against Cornyn, 62 percent to 19 percent, and 49 points against Paxton, 65 percent to 16 percent.

Among independent voters, he led Cornyn by 22 points, 51 percent to 29 percent and Paxton by 25 points, 53 percent to 28 percent. The poll included 1,018 likely general election voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

However, a University of Houston and YouGov poll showed Cornyn up one point over Talarico, 44 percent to 43 percent, and Paxton up 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20-31, 2026.

An Emerson College poll showed Cornyn up 3 points over Talarico, 47 percent to 44 percent, while Paxton and Talarico were tied at 46 percent. It surveyed 1,165 voters from January 10-12, 2026.

A Tight Race in the Republican Runoff

Polls for the Republican runoff suggest a tight race in the runoff, which has divided Republican voters as Democrats coalesce around Talarico.

A co/efficient poll showed Cornyn up a point, 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent remaining undecided. It surveyed 1,143 likely voters from April 11-14, 2026, according to The New York Times.

An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed Paxton up 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 1,225 likely voters from April 6-7, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Some Republicans have publicly expressed concern over Democrats' hopes for a blue wave in the state, including Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, who this month said the GOP will struggle to hold their majority in the Texas House, which the party has controlled for more than two decades.

Patrick, who made the remarks at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference in early April, said that if the loser of the GOP Senate runoff on May 26 does not endorse the other candidate, it could impact down-ballot candidates.

What Do Forecasters Think?

Forecasters still give Republicans an advantage in the race, with some final analysis resting on who becomes the Republican nominee.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report classify the race as Likely Republican, having previously put it at Solid Republican.

The Cook Political Report notes that if Paxton wins the runoff, "we would shift this race into the Lean Republican column," adding that "Democrats maintain that they could make this race competitive even if Sen. John Cornyn emerges as the nominee, but we're skeptical of that argument."

Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in a March 4 update, “Looking ahead, we would very likely move Texas Senate from Likely Republican to Leans Republican if Paxton ended up winning the runoff."

"We may end up making the move later this cycle even if Cornyn is the nominee, depending on the broader environment and other factors. After all, while Cornyn exceeded expectations, it isn’t a sign of strength that a four-term senator (and state attorney general before that) received just a little more than 40% of the vote in his own party primary.”

What Happens Next

The Republican runoff is on May 26.

Trump's endorsement remains powerful in Republican primaries, but he has not made his pick between Cornyn and Paxton. In March he posted on Truth Social that he would be making his endorsement soon.