John Cornyn

Only twice in the history of popular elections for U.S. senator from Texas has an incumbent lost a primary.

That could happen for a third time Tuesday if Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeats four-term Sen. John Cornyn. Or it may not if the final barrage of attacks focused on Paxton’s controversial personal and professional behavior pushes Cornyn, 74, over the top.

Regardless of the outcome, political observers across Texas and in Washington, D.C., will soon turn their attention to Democrat nominee state Rep. James Talarico, a former teacher and seminarian who blends biblical quotations with a moderate message.

In a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, Talarico appears to be gaining traction with voters. His standing may be due in part to the fractious Cornyn-Paxton primary.

According to a recent statewide survey of likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, Talarico and Paxton were tied at 45%.

The same survey showed Cornyn edging Talarico 45% to 44%.

Talarico, 36, supports term limits for members of Congress, ending presidential pardons, raising the federal minimum wage, and continued support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

While supporting cuts to U.S. weapons funding for Israel, Talarico also backs continued U.S. support for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system. He also supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"But Talarico opposes beef and oil production in Texas, not to mention he says God has six genders," Austin attorney and longtime conservative activist Howard Hickman told Newsmax, referring to remarks Talarico made while opposing Republican legislation designed to restrict transgender youth.

Talarico has also said Trump's policies on healthcare, immigration, and foreign policy are contrary to the teachings of Jesus Christ.

"Talarico has a lot of money, just like Beto," Hickman added, referring to former Democrat Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who ran for Senate in 2018 but lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by about 2 percentage points. "But Beto was a better candidate."