John Cornyn

Not since then-Rep. Lyndon B. Johnson won the pivotal Democrat runoff by a disputed margin of 87 votes over former Gov. Coke Stevenson has a Texas race for U.S. senator been so fiercely contested — or drawn as much national attention — as Tuesday's Republican contest between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Whoever emerges with the GOP nomination will almost certainly face a hard-fought race in the fall against Democrat state Rep. James Talarico.

President Donald Trump's endorsement of Paxton last week is widely viewed as enough to push him ahead of Cornyn, who led the initial primary 42% to 40%.

Following Trump's lead, third-place primary finisher Rep. Wesley Hunt recently endorsed Paxton.

The latest Global Strategy poll, released May 20, the day after Trump's endorsement, showed Paxton leading Cornyn among likely voters 52% to 40%.

But even after the poll and Trump's endorsement, few Republican activists who spoke to Newsmax were willing to say Cornyn was certain to lose to the two-term attorney general.

Austin attorney Howard Hickman, a longtime conservative activist who supported Ronald Reagan's successful 1976 Texas primary campaign, summed up the feelings of many on the right when he told Newsmax: "I have not voted for Cornyn since he voted for the [automobile company] bailout in 2008. Paxton will vote right but has the morals of an alley cat."

Hickman was referring to allegations of serial adultery involving the attorney general, along with accusations of mortgage and securities fraud, a 7,000% increase in his net worth while in office and ties to disgraced investor Nate Paul.

Cornyn has emphasized those issues in aggressive campaign ads leading up to Tuesday's vote.

With early voting closed, roughly 621,000 votes had been cast, a figure considered low for Texas. Many analysts believe Trump supporters are more likely to vote in person Tuesday than participate in early voting.

In counties Trump won in 2024 with 80% or more of the vote — areas that are largely rural and accounted for one-fifth of the primary vote — Paxton beat Cornyn 45% to 40%. In counties where Trump won 50% to 80% of the vote, Cornyn edged Paxton 43% to 42%.

In the 12 Texas counties Kamala Harris carried in 2024 — which account for roughly one-fourth of the primary vote — Cornyn led Paxton 44% to 40%.

Political observers nationwide will be watching the outcome of Tuesday night's runoff.