John Cornyn

In the booming North Texas suburbs that once powered establishment Republicans, GOP voters are deciding whether the future of the party looks more like John Cornyn or Ken Paxton, the bitter Senate rivals.

At a sports bar in Little Elm last week, the answer from many grassroots conservatives was unmistakable.

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They talked less about legislation than confrontation. Less about seniority than visibility. Less about governing than fighting.

They were all in for Paxton, praising him for suing the Biden administration and pushing aggressive conservative priorities. They dismissed longtime Republicans in Washington as too cautious and disconnected from the party’s combative base.

A short drive south at Hard 8 BBQ in The Colony, Cornyn supporters were making a sharply different argument: Republicans still need stability, experience and a nominee who can survive the general election against a rising Democrat.

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They warned that Paxton’s legal and personal troubles could create an opening in November and threaten the GOP’s longtime hold on the seat.

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The split offered a snapshot of the competing factions inside Texas politics ahead of the runoff Tuesday between Cornyn, the four-term senator, and Paxton, the outgoing attorney general. The winner will face Democrat James Talarico.

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President Donald Trump shook up the race last week with a late endorsement of Paxton, giving him a major boost with MAGA voters.

Cornyn, who spent months angling for Trump’s backing, insisted there are still enough Republicans wary of Paxton's long-running controversies to keep the contest close.

Related: Trump endorses Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas' heated Republican Senate runoff

For some North Texas conservatives, though, Paxton has emerged as the clearer fit.

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Steve Brown, a 46-year-old Carrollton IT consultant and former Denton County precinct chair, said he reluctantly voted for Cornyn in the past. This year, he said he's firmly behind Paxton.

Brown said Paxton’s years as attorney general convinced him that the candidate fights harder than most Republicans in Washington.

“He'll sue anybody he can find that's taken advantage of Texans, and thank God for it,” Brown said after Paxton’s recent event at Towers Tap House.

Paxton had just touted a $10 million settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital over allegations involving Medicaid billing for gender-affirming care.

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Brown said it showed that Texas conservatives are setting the national agenda.

“The things we do in Texas give other states courage,” he said. “He’s setting the precedent for the whole dang country.”

At Cornyn’s rally in The Colony, supporters said his experience, policy knowledge and ability to attract independents carry more weight in a statewide election.

Jay Bruner, a Plano retiree who worked in corporate relations, said he worries about Paxton’s years of turmoil, from impeachment to securities fraud charges to adultery allegations.

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“The senator does not have baggage like that,” he said. “I've known the attorney general. I like him, but it's a case of electability.”

Bruner said Republicans could lose the Senate seat if Paxton becomes the nominee.

“We've got to have a person who can beat Talarico,” he said.

Regional divide

Both campaigns are fighting hard for North Texas.

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The March 3 primary exposed sharp splits inside the Republican electorate there: Cornyn dominated Dallas County, winning more than 50% of the vote, while the race tightened dramatically in the suburbs.

Paxton narrowly carried Collin County, Cornyn eked out a slim edge in Denton County and Tarrant County gave the senator a clearer, though hardly overwhelming, advantage.

These counties helped build modern Texas Republicanism, but now reflect the party’s infighting.

For some Cornyn voters, the senator’s strength is his broader appeal.

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Ken Green, a Dallas business consultant waiting in line for a photo with Cornyn, said his role in helping make Juneteenth a national holiday showed he tries to reach beyond his base.

“He's a person who’s inclusive,” Green said. “It’s very important that we reelect him to the Senate.”

Cornyn said voters should not ignore Paxton's repeated mistakes and “unrepentant” behavior.

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“When people commit the same or different mistakes over and over and over again, and they're simply unrepentant…we need to prove them wrong and show that character does still matter in these elections,” he said.

He repeatedly stressed that Dallas-Fort Worth could decide the outcome. “There is too much at stake for any of us to stay home,” he said.

The crowd stretched into an overflow room as Collin and Denton County Republicans mingled among voters. State Rep. Jeff Leach of Allen saluted Cornyn as both a fighter and governing conservative.

“You gotta have great barbecue, and you gotta have a fighter,” Leach said. “And today we've got both.”

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MAGA distrust

Many Paxton supporters see those attacks as proof that establishment Republicans fear the GOP's more aggressive turn.

Erin O’Loughlin of Little Elm, who moved from California after frustrations with high taxes and pandemic-era restrictions, said Cornyn has not done enough to advance conservative priorities despite his years in office.

“That's a little disturbing to me for the amount of his tenure,” O’Loughlin said.

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At another Paxton rally last week at Matt’s Rancho Martinez in Allen, backers praised the attorney general’s confrontational approach to immigration and cultural issues stirring the MAGA base.

Debbie Blanquie, a retired McKinney bookkeeper, said she supported Paxton’s efforts targeting Islamic organizations in Texas, including the Council on American-Islamic Relations.

“I just don't think it's a good thing for Texas to be taken over,” she said. “I appreciate what he’s done.”

In Little Elm, Paxton ripped Cornyn as an out-of-touch Capitol insider.

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"He doesn't talk to people like us," Paxton said. "He talks to people in Washington, D.C., raising money."

He told the crowd they could have “tremendous influence” in a race expected to draw relatively few people to the polls.

Not every Republican voter interviewed last week had fully settled on a side.

At a Paxton event at Ozona Bar & Grill in Dallas, patent analyst Nate Weymouth said he remained torn between the two candidates, searching for what he called a “fiscal conservative who speaks his mind.”

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“I see members of Congress being so beholden to whatever Trump was saying but they are not maintaining the principles of fiscal conservatism,” he said.

Voters like Weymouth remain especially valuable in a low-turnout runoff. That’s why both sides will keep flooding North Texas with ads, campaign stops and direct appeals, hoping to sway even a small bloc of undecided Republicans before Tuesday.