John Larson

In a stunning upset, former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin defeated 14-term U.S. Rep. John B. Larson on Tuesday night in a victory that few had predicted one year ago.

Before Bronin launched his campaign, he had been warned by party insiders last summer that he should avoid challenging a popular, longtime incumbent who had won huge victories in the 27-town district for decades.

But Bronin ignored the advice and forged ahead with an organized, powerful fundraising network of longtime friends and supporters that allowed him to raise $3 million and challenge an entrenched incumbent who had been viewed for years as a guaranteed winner for Democrats.

“This is a political earthquake in Connecticut,” Bronin declared as his supporters cheered in Hartford. “But the goal is to shake things up in Washington, D.C., and we’re just getting started.”

Bronin added, “We are at a moment of crisis in our country – a moment of enormous challenge and change. The economic gains that are making a few Americans wealthy beyond all imagine are leaving too many Americans out. … Donald Trump has taken a wrecking ball to our alliances, made the world more dangerous, and he’s engaged in a level of corruption that goes beyond our founders’ worst fears and resembles what I witnessed when I served on the anti-corruption task force in Afghanistan.”

Larson conceded the election as he was surrounded by his family, friends, and reporters.

“Life goes on,” Larson said. “This is a political election. Yeah, I’m disappointed. No question about it.”

Larson called for unity in his speech, which was made with supporters circled around him instead of standing on a stage.

“The people in this district have spoken, and it’s time for us to come together,” Larson said before hugging his wife and thanking family members.

Bronin, 47, constantly repeated that he would bring more energy than the 78-year-old Larson in the daily battle against Republican President Donald J. Trump. Democrats nationally have followed the theme of younger candidates after President Joe Biden stumbled in a nationally televised debate and eventually dropped out of the race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Bronin was declared the winner shortly before 9:30 p.m. by The Hill, a respected outlet that covers politics nationally. The Hill cited Decision Desk HQ, which analyzes election results. The Associated Press and the Washington Post later declared Bronin as the winner.

Larson supporters had been anxiously waiting on whether he could beat back his most competitive challenge since entering Congress 28 years ago. Larson had been clashing for months in a bitter battle against Bronin and two younger opponents – state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest of West Hartford and Hartford school board member Ruth Fortune – in a competitive, four-way Democratic primary in Greater Hartford and beyond.

Longtime political science professor Gary Rose of Sacred Heart University in Fairfield said that Gilchrest and Fortune were potential “spoilers” in the race as Gilchrest had about 8% of the vote and Fortune had 5% as the votes were still being counted late Tuesday night.

Soon after the results were announced, Democrats were already rallying around Bronin. One of the first was U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy, who taped a well-received commercial supporting Larson that was viewed as among the best in the campaign.

“For eight years, as mayor, Luke Bronin delivered for Hartford,” said Murphy, a Hartford resident. “After November, he’ll do the same for families across Connecticut’s 1st in Congress. Luke understands our country is in crisis. He will work tirelessly to stand up to Trump while making life more affordable. Even though I was on the other side of this race, Luke and I have been good friends for years, and I’m excited to serve with him. I’m sending him big congrats on a big win.”

In Hartford, Mayor Arunan Arulampalam said it is time to move forward.

“Luke’s campaign has shown that Connecticut voters are ready for change,” he said. “I look forward to working closely with Luke as he fights for the city of Hartford, and the first district, in Washington D.C. Congressman Larson has served this district well, and I respect his service. Now, it is time for Democrats to come together and work to make this nation more affordable for working-class people.”

With the candidates relatively close on the issues, insiders said the deciding factor would come down to the team with the best turnout operation on a hot day in mid-August when many voters are often distracted by out-of-state vacations and trips to the beach.

An ominous warning sign came for the Larson campaign when his hometown of East Hartford failed to break into the Top 10 towns statewide for the most “early voters” who are now allowed to cast ballots before Election Day after a change in Connecticut law.

East Hartford had only 780 early votes in seven days, which raised concerns among Larson supporters and caught the attention of his opponents. East Hartford even fell behind Hartford, a traditionally low-turnout city that had 887 early votes. By contrast, Hamden placed second statewide with 1,935 early votes because it is the hometown of Elliott, who ran a spirited but ultimately losing campaign against Lamont.

To overcome Bronin’s support in various towns across the district, Larson needed a huge turnout in Manchester, which was one of his key strongholds.

As the candidates and third-party groups spent millions of dollars on the high-stakes, big-money race, Bronin repeatedly stated that it was “time for a change,” pledging to bring more energy than Larson to the daily battle against President Donald Trump’s Republican administration. Bronin surprised the Hartford political establishment by defeating Larson at the party’s convention in May, which gave him the top line on the ballot in Row A next to Gov. Ned Lamont, who consistently led in the polls over state Rep. Josh Elliott in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Lamont won the primary as The Associated Press quickly declared him as the winner at about 8:20 p.m. Tuesday in a long-running tradition over the past 178 years in which the AP “calls” political races nationwide.

Larson’s broader strategy was to avoid a one-on-one race against the well-funded Bronin and instead expand the race to split the vote in as many ways as possible. As a result, Larson’s team helped Gilchrest to capture enough delegates at the convention to qualify for the primary. In addition, Fortune gathered enough signatures to gain a spot in the four-way primary.

Once close colleagues who had supported each other for years, Larson and Bronin became increasingly estranged as the campaign wore on. Larson said he thought months ago that Bronin was running for governor, adding that he initially thought Bronin was joking when he said he was running for Larson’s seat.

In order to fuel the television commercials, the candidates raised a combined $6.2 million, in addition to millions of dollars more from third-party Super PACs that generally attacked the other opponent. Bronin led the pack with $3 million raised, followed by Larson at $2.7 million, according to updated numbers from “Open Secrets” that tracks campaign spending. Gilchrest trailed with $164,000, while Fortune raised $107,000 that was not enough to mount a consistent TV campaign.

Knowing that he was in a highly competitive race, Larson reached out to his colleagues in Washington, D.C. to help him raise money and generate enthusiasm in the race. U.S. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries traveled to Hartford and assured Larson that the House would vote on Social Security reform during the first 100 days if Democrats regain control of the chamber in November.

Social Security became the primary’s single biggest topic of contention as Bronin charged that Larson had been unable to pass reform even when the Democrats controlled the House, the Senate, and the White House for two years under President Barack Obama and two years under President Joe Biden. But Larson told The Courant that Democrats did not improve Social Security because they were distracted for two years while creating Obamacare and distracted by the coronavirus pandemic and the American Rescue Plan of 2021 that provided $1.9 trillion to help keep the economy afloat during Biden’s tenure.

Besides Jeffries and House judiciary committee ranking member Jamie Raskin, Larson arranged an appearance by U.S. Rep. Richard Neal, who could become the new chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxation, tariffs, Social Security, Medicare and trade agreements, among others.

“He’s done so many fundraisers for me that they think he’s my running mate,” Larson said about his friend.

Bronin’s upset history

At 47, Bronin has pulled off a series of electoral upsets as he surprised voters in the Greater Hartford area.

In 2015, Bronin stunned the local political establishment as a relative newcomer who defeated incumbent Mayor Pedro Segarra, whose supporters tried to paint Bronin as a wealthy carpetbagger from Greenwich who could not possibly relate to the plight of the poor in Hartford.

Bronin surprised insiders again this year by defeating Larson at the Democratic Party convention in East Hartford in May, even though Larson has 28 years of experience in dealing with delegates and Democratic insiders in the district.

“We just saw a political earthquake in this convention hall,” Bronin said after winning the convention over Larson. “Every Democrat in this room believes that we need to stop the damage that Donald Trump is doing to our country every single day, that we need to rebuild the guardrails to stop the brazen corruption and self-enrichment that he has taken to unimaginable heights.”

In both the 2015 race for mayor and this year’s contest, Bronin was warned against running by Democrats who said that running the races would hurt his political career. Still, he forged ahead.

A former U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer in Afghanistan, Bronin is known for an intense work ethic and for outworking his opponents in previous elections. He told voters that they had seen him work “24-7” for eight years as Hartford’s mayor. He continued working at a breakneck pace on the campaign trail.

Republicans

Besides the marquee 1st District race, Republicans also had two Congressional primaries that received less attention and far fewer commercials. The votes were still being counted late Tuesday night.

In the 4th District in Fairfield County, Greenwich resident Michael Goldstein defeated Daniel Miressi of Norwalk for the right to face longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Himes, who defeated U.S. Rep. Chris Shays in 2008 and has held the seat ever since.

In the 5th District, convention-endorsed candidate Chris Shea of Cheshire defeated challenger Jonathan DeBarros of Terryville. A longtime Navy SEAL, Shea captured the endorsement during the state convention at the Mohegan Sun casino to run against incumbent U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes, a Wolcott Democrat.

The candidates had been clashing over the personal history of DeBarros, who served 19 years in prison for a shooting in Waterbury at the age of 18 in 1996 before he was later pardoned by the state’s board of pardons and paroles. DeBarros now says he’s a MAGA patriot, backer of police and gun rights and has spent his time since being released from prison as a community leader, mentoring youth.

DeBarros has been a controversial figure in the Republican Party, but he still won 22% of the convention delegates that allowed him to qualify for the primary.

Besides the contests for governor and three for Congress, there were battles for 11 legislative seats and two local races for probate judge in Manchester and Bridgeport.

In a contest for the state legislature, longtime Sen. Doug McCrory of Hartford was running in third place in his battle for reelection in a three-way battle against state Rep. Maryam Khan and Ayana Taylor, who are both Windsor residents. Khan won the Democratic party convention endorsement in the three-town district that also includes Bloomfield, and Khan was leading on Tuesday night.

Both House and Senate Republicans have raised major questions about McCrory, a Hartford Democrat who has been under investigation by the FBI regarding state grants that he lobbied for that were awarded to Greater Hartford nonprofits, including the now-defunct Blue Hills Civic Association. Blue Hills funneled more than $1 million to a nonprofit known as SHEBA that is run by McCrory’s friend, Sonserae Cicero-Hamlin.

A forensic audit was ordered last year after state officials were stunned when the Blue Hills Civic Association reported that $300,000 in state money was apparently sent to scammers in a fraudulent bank transfer. Workers at the nonprofit were laid off after the money went missing and the organization eventually ceased operating.

McCrory, who served in the House for 12 years before succeeding Democrat Eric Coleman in the Senate in 2017, says he has “engaged in no wrongdoing.”