John Mannion

Washington – Two years ago, Central New Yorkers found it hard to avoid a daily blitz of TV and digital ads, mailers and text messages in the campaign for Congress between John Mannion and Brandon Williams.

By the time it was over, the two candidates and national political groups had spent $22 million trying to sway voters in Central New York. The region emerged as a key national battleground for control of the House of Representatives.

It was one of the most expensive elections in the nation, with spending on campaign ads ranking 12th among the 435 House seats, according to the ad-tracking firm Ad Impact. Mannion, D-Geddes, won by almost 10 percentage points over Williams, a first-term Republican.

Now as Mannion begins his reelection campaign, something very different is happening in the 22nd Congressional District. Several national political groups say the district is no longer on their radar.

In fact, the election for the Syracuse-based House seat is unlikely to be competitive for the first time in nearly 20 years, according to political analysts in Washington, D.C.

At least three prominent analysts rate the upcoming election between Mannion and Republican Kailee Buller as a “safe” or “solid” Democratic seat.

At the same time, national political groups that help fund the campaigns of Democrats and Republicans are looking to spend their big advertising dollars elsewhere this year.

Some of the reasons behind the change:

Mannion won convincingly in 2024 in a district with new boundaries more favorable to Democrats. Democrats now hold a nearly 30,000 voter enrollment advantage over Republicans.

Mannion outperformed the top of the ticket with his 10-point win over Williams. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, defeated Donald Trump by 8 points in the same district.

Buller got a late start in the campaign, declaring her candidacy in March after two other Republicans – John Lemondes and John Salka – dropped their bids for the GOP nomination.

Voter enthusiasm for Republicans is lagging as Trump’s approval rating reaches new lows in nationwide polls. In Central New York, the GOP took a historic beating in local elections in November.

Lemondes, a state Assembly member from LaFayette who was considered the favorite for the party’s nomination, struggled to raise money or gain traction among GOP voters and donors.

Buller, 37, a first-time candidate, quit her job last month in Trump’s administration. She moved with her family of five from Washington back to her native Auburn, where they are renting an apartment.

Buller, former chief-of-staff to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, served at the USDA in both Trump administrations. During her 15-year career in Washington, she has also worked as a lobbyist for the food industry

On Thursday, Buller announced that she raised $200,000 in just a month of campaigning and secured enough petition signatures to qualify for both the Republican and Conservative Party ballot lines.

She declined through a spokesman to release an itemized list of donors to show the source of the money. Campaigns are required to make that information public in a quarterly report due by an 11:59 p.m. deadline today.

Buller said that her fundraising and petition success indicate growing support that would “put NY-22 back in play” and give her the resources she needs to win.

But that pitch hasn’t swayed political analysts in Washington.

David Wasserman, senior election analyst for the Cook Political Report, told syracuse.com the odds remain against Buller.

“It’s a respectable amount of money that she raised,” Wasserman said. “She certainly has contacts from leading a D.C. trade association and helping lead the Department of Agriculture. But I can’t think of a worse set of circumstances for a Republican to win this seat. Donald Trump lost this seat by a wide margin, and his popularity has nose-dived since then.”

In addition, redistricting has made the Syracuse-based House district even more difficult for a Republican to win, he said. And Mannion remains popular in a district where he won with broad support from independent voters.

“He won pretty convincingly in a year when Donald Trump won nationally,” Wasserman said of Mannion. “And now he’s got the wind at his back.”

Mannion plans to report to the Federal Election Commission next week that he has a huge fundraising advantage over Buller.

Mannion raised more than $400,000 in the first quarter of the year and has more than $1.5 million in his campaign bank account, a spokesman said.

Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the Inside Elections newsletter, said he sees no reason to change his rating of the 22nd District race from “solid Democratic” even with the emergence of Buller.

“Republicans were struggling to find anyone, just a warm body to put on the ballot,” Rubashkin told syracuse.com. “That’s never a position you want to be in. But the reality is this is a Democratic-leaning district. This is a seat that Kamala Harris carried by 8 points.”

Buller also will have to contend with growing Democratic voter enthusiasm during a mid-term year when the party that controls the White House historically loses seats in Congress.

Democrats made big gains in November’s election, including in Central New York where Republicans lost majority control of the Onondaga County Legislature for the first time in nearly 50 years.

“The political environment is shaping up to be better this time around than it was in 2024 for Democrats,” Rubashkin said. “The question will be, ‘Can Kailee Buller put together a real credible campaign? She has not run for public office before. She has been away from the district for a decade and a half. And she is coming out of the Trump administration at a time when Donald Trump is not particularly popular.”

Rubashkin said the national political parties and their fundraising arms are focusing their resources on higher-profile and more competitive battles in New York state this year.

Republicans are trying to defend the seat of second-term Rep. Mike Lawler in the Hudson Valley. And Democrats are putting their money behind vulnerable freshman Rep. Josh Riley, D-Ithaca, and two Long Island Democrats – Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen.

For Central New York – long a purple district that became a top national swing seat after the 2008 retirement of Rep. James Walsh, R-Onondaga – that means voters will likely see the temperature turned down a notch in this year’s battle for the 22nd District.

After Walsh retired, Central New York emerged as the No. 1 swing district in the House of Representatives, with the seat switching back and forth between Democrats and Republicans in four consecutive elections.

It broke up a long period of Republican dominance in the region. When Mannion won in 2024, he became only the second Democrat in 44 years to represent the Syracuse-based seat in Congress.

But with national Republicans focused elsewhere this year, voters can expect to see fewer ads from the political campaigns and a drop in the number of national political figures making their way to Central New York this fall to campaign for Mannion or Buller.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which spent $1.1 million supporting Williams in 2024, has not included Buller on its “MAGA Majority” list of priority races aimed at expanding the GOP’s House majority.

The opposing Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Mannion in its initial “Frontline” program to defend Democratic seats, but the group has not reserved any TV ad time in Central New York.

House Majority PAC, a group aligned with Democratic House leaders, said it sees no threat from Buller and has no plans to buy ads in the 22nd District. Two years ago, the group spent about $2.6 million supporting Mannion’s campaign.

Despite the favorable outlook for Mannion, it won’t change his campaign strategy, said Josh Ludden, Mannion’s campaign manager.

“With the fact that this is a historically competitive district, we’re not taking anything for granted,” Ludden said. “This is historically a very purple area. So, we’re continuing to have our foot on the gas to deliver the congressman’s message.”

Mannion will focus on telling voters about what’s at stake in the election, both locally and nationally, Ludden said.

Both candidates said they will focus on affordability issues.

Buller has faulted Mannion for his outspoken criticism of Trump and House Republicans. Buller claims that Mannion has not delivered on his promise to represent Central New York in a bipartisan manner.

Mannion has said he didn’t expect to be a partisan fighter, but an extreme administration forced him to speak out.

The 22nd District spans all of Onondaga and Madison counties, and parts of Cayuga, Cortland and Oneida counties. About 70% of the district’s voters are in Onondaga County.