John Rose

An internal poll from U.S. Rep. John Rose’s campaign shows Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s lead in the GOP gubernatorial primary has narrowed to 15 points.

Blackburn leads with 44% of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Rose with 29% and Rep. Monty Fritts with 12%.

The poll, conducted by the McLaughlin & Associates firm used by President Donald Trump, surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

A poll memo found that the Rose campaign "seems to be ahead of schedule and is well positioned to win."

U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s lead in Tennessee's GOP gubernatorial primary may have slipped to just 15 points — after she's held a commanding lead of at least 42 points since last year — according to new internal polling released by her rival, U.S. Rep. John Rose.

Blackburn still holds a double-digit lead with 44% of the vote, followed by Rose with 29% and Rep. Monty Fritts with 12%. Another 15% say they’re undecided.

Among primary voters who had seen, read or heard about both Blackburn and Rose, Rose was in the lead with 39% to Blackburn’s 35%.

Overall, Blackburn’s lead in the race has slipped from 58 percentage points in January 2025 to 15 percentage points as of June 30, according to this poll.

Rose had about 16% support when he launched his campaign last year.

Blackburn campaign staff did not comment on the new poll but pointed to a questionnaire conducted in 11 of Tennessee’s 95 counties during the same time period that reported favorable approval ratings for Blackburn.

The Rose poll was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, a firm that President Donald Trump has used for a decade. Pollsters contacted 600 likely Republican primary voters via text, landline and cell phone between June 28 and 30. It has a +/- 4% margin of error.

Polling was done before Blackburn made headlines in Nashville for not answering questions from a NewsChannel5 TV reporter while waiting for a slow elevator.

According to a poll memo obtained by The Tennessean, 53% of voters contacted agreed with the statement that “Marsha Blackburn is a career politician who has been in political office for over 36 years, and it’s time to give someone else a chance to do better as governor.”

“With about a month to go, the John Rose campaign seems to be ahead of schedule and is well positioned to win,” the memo said. “As the voters learn more, they seem much more likely to support him over Marsha Blackburn.”

Rose spokesman Chris Devaney likened the congressman’s rise in polls to that of now-Gov. Bill Lee in 2018.

“Eight years ago, almost no one gave our current Governor a chance to win. He started in single digits, was written off by the pundits, and surged in the final weeks to win,” Devaney said. “I was there. John Rose is on that same path — and the numbers now prove it.”

The questionnaire Blackburn's team pointed to was circulated by the political action committee Tennesseans for Student Success Action on the group’s blog, The Tennessee Firefly. The PAC surveyed a total of 1,750 voters in Wilson, Sumner, Knox, Rhea, Sequatchie, Bledsoe, Van Buren, Cheatham, Dickson, Tipton and Haywood counties.

Voters were not asked directly who they preferred between Blackburn and Rose, but they generally viewed Blackburn favorably.

In a post with no named author, the PAC called the McLaughlin poll "unfathomable" and “a drastic aberration” from its polling conducted “over the last 18 months.”

Tennesseans for Student Success has not endorsed any candidate for governor.

Michael Lotfi, a political operative with Americans for Prosperity Action, another PAC that’s deployed its grassroots army to knock on more than 100,000 voters' doors for Blackburn, called the data “a silly push poll.”

“@JohnRoseforTN’s push poll is just that. A silly push poll out at the last minute to hopefully scurry up some cash so he doesn’t have to continue paying @FormerChairman out of his own pocket," the PAC wrote. "It’s in no way reflective of real polling, or what we see on the doors with real voters.”

Blackburn’s campaign has not held a publicly announced town hall or campaign stop this election cycle, though she has said she is interacting with voters “every single day.” Rose has held nearly 45 public town halls and held campaign events in all 95 counties.